Keep in mind sodium ion and LFP are much safer and don't require nearly as much cooling and management systems as nickel-cobalt chemistries
So at the PACK level of energy density, which is really all that matters, sodium ion and LFP close much of the gap with nickel-cobalt.
So spitballing here, an NMC chemistry at 240 wk/kg at the CELL level will lose about 20+% ore of density per weight for cooling and safety, so that they will be effectively 160 wh/kg at the PACK level.
Most CATL literature has LFP and sodium ion at 90-95% at the pack level with "cell-to-pack" which bypasses modules and other intermediate packaging.
So if 240 wh/kg NMC chemistry is actually 160 wh/kg at PACK level, and this sodium ion is 160 wh/kg but about 150 wh/kg at PACK level, well then you see the real power of these chemistries.
If the pack level 160-180 wh/kg equates to a 400 mile car, then 140-160 wh/kg sodium ion at pack level equates to a 300+ mile car.
300 miles means a really good city car. It means you can probably do a 50-100 mile PHEV car pretty cheap. It means cheap, limit-is-number-of-factories scaling of EV battery supply.
Sodium ion is supposed to be 40$ or less bill of materials per kw-hr compared to 80-100 for NMC and about 50-70 for LFP. And it should probably drop from there in the long run.
It also means that EVs beat ICEs on drivetrain cost, possibly by a significant margin, which might translate to a 4000$ + price difference from an ICE. Combined with theoretically cheaper maintenance and "fuel" costs, this should translate to an EV cost advantage that people simply won't be able to overlook.
Personally I think there should be an overall "carbon externality charge" of $5000 on a new ICE as well, or something that scales with the carbon inefficiency of the vehicle (so a bigass suburban assault vehicle is like $10000).
Also, note that the roadmap for batteries of CATL, a lot like the roadmap for future nodes in semiconductors so take it with a grain of salt as to when they realize the goals, is for 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 240-260 wh/kg LFP. With superior cell-to-pack density, that should mean a 400 mile car for sodium ion, and a 500 mile car for LFP.
Now, hopefully in 5-10 years we get lithium-sulfur and sodium-sulfur that are AT LEAST 50% more dense with similar materials costs. Then you get to shrink the battery to make the EV even cheaper.
So the revolution is coming, in my opinion. And this isn't just a gee-whiz a faster pc for my Overwatch. This is "future survival of humanity in the balance". We NEED to decarbonize transportation, and we NEED cheap batteries for alternative energy grid storage. The development of these technologies is preservation-of-humanity level of importance, and high density sodium ion chemistries are a major major step towards that because of all the economic and practical levels/needs/requirements they meet/exceed.
> "carbon externality charge" of $5000 on a new ICE as well, or something that scales with the carbon inefficiency of the vehicle
Your whole writeup was inspiring and gives me more hope for the future. This part, though, I'm angry about. I'm angry that we don't already have this legislation in some form. I'm sure it will be fought tooth & nail by the big auto manufacturers, but we should do it anyway. Maybe we could tack on higher penalties for anyone caught 'rolling coal', too.
New Zealand has a scheme (soon to expire with the change in government) for this.
Low efficiency vehicles are taxed on import, and the money raised is returned as rebates on high efficiency vehicles.
A Ford Ranger might attract the full fee, a new t Nissan leaf would get the full credit.
A small ICE car attracts a smaller fee. Hybrids are given a smaller credit.
The exact amount of credit varied over time as the fees gathered changed.
It should be a bit more than $5000. However, prepare to be even angrier:
Burning a gallon of gas generates 20lbs of CO2 (most of the weight is the O2), so 100 gallons produces a ton. Direct air carbon capture should cost roughly $100 per ton at scale, so the fee should be $1/gallon of gasoline (either at vehicle purchase or at the pump).
That’s completely affordable and lower than current gasoline taxes in many places.
If we made that one change (and funneled the revenue into carbon capture) existing ICE cars could be carbon negative in 5-10 years, and, as we phased them out (because EVs are just better) we’d have a clear path to pre-industrial atmospheric CO2.
The EU mandates a minimum €0.36/L excise tax on gasoline, which is about $1.49/gallon. In practice many large countries like Germany, France, Italy already levy more than $3/gallon. But they certainly don't funnel the revenue into carbon capture.
I'm optimistic that the rise in geothermal will be astronomical once it gets off the ground. Both advanced and more simple conventional for district heating.
We're at most 10 years from the confidence in oil and gas investments being completely shattered. A lot of the investors and engineers will seek out opportunities where they can apply their competence. Geothermal is a good fit. Whoever captures the market first will have the most to gain, so once they see it's even remotely possible there will be a race.
I suspect politicians in countries with oil/gas-development in northern regions will start subsidizing this as well, both to attract voters from workers in that sector, and to help them establish a new competitive industry that they can replace their oil and gas exports with.
So at the PACK level of energy density, which is really all that matters, sodium ion and LFP close much of the gap with nickel-cobalt.
So spitballing here, an NMC chemistry at 240 wk/kg at the CELL level will lose about 20+% ore of density per weight for cooling and safety, so that they will be effectively 160 wh/kg at the PACK level.
Most CATL literature has LFP and sodium ion at 90-95% at the pack level with "cell-to-pack" which bypasses modules and other intermediate packaging.
So if 240 wh/kg NMC chemistry is actually 160 wh/kg at PACK level, and this sodium ion is 160 wh/kg but about 150 wh/kg at PACK level, well then you see the real power of these chemistries.
If the pack level 160-180 wh/kg equates to a 400 mile car, then 140-160 wh/kg sodium ion at pack level equates to a 300+ mile car.
300 miles means a really good city car. It means you can probably do a 50-100 mile PHEV car pretty cheap. It means cheap, limit-is-number-of-factories scaling of EV battery supply.
Sodium ion is supposed to be 40$ or less bill of materials per kw-hr compared to 80-100 for NMC and about 50-70 for LFP. And it should probably drop from there in the long run.
It also means that EVs beat ICEs on drivetrain cost, possibly by a significant margin, which might translate to a 4000$ + price difference from an ICE. Combined with theoretically cheaper maintenance and "fuel" costs, this should translate to an EV cost advantage that people simply won't be able to overlook.
Personally I think there should be an overall "carbon externality charge" of $5000 on a new ICE as well, or something that scales with the carbon inefficiency of the vehicle (so a bigass suburban assault vehicle is like $10000).
Also, note that the roadmap for batteries of CATL, a lot like the roadmap for future nodes in semiconductors so take it with a grain of salt as to when they realize the goals, is for 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 240-260 wh/kg LFP. With superior cell-to-pack density, that should mean a 400 mile car for sodium ion, and a 500 mile car for LFP.
Now, hopefully in 5-10 years we get lithium-sulfur and sodium-sulfur that are AT LEAST 50% more dense with similar materials costs. Then you get to shrink the battery to make the EV even cheaper.
So the revolution is coming, in my opinion. And this isn't just a gee-whiz a faster pc for my Overwatch. This is "future survival of humanity in the balance". We NEED to decarbonize transportation, and we NEED cheap batteries for alternative energy grid storage. The development of these technologies is preservation-of-humanity level of importance, and high density sodium ion chemistries are a major major step towards that because of all the economic and practical levels/needs/requirements they meet/exceed.