Maybe "mega-AOL" might've happened, but an open network of networks where there's no parasitic mega-corp acting as gatekeeper and tollbooth operator? Citation needed.
People with two or more computers were always finding ways to connect them before the internet. Networking protocols were a dime a dozen in the 70s and 80s. The idea that people would never hit on the idea of a protocol over telephone wires is not particularly compelling.
It's like saying if the Wrights had not invented controlled, powered flight in 1903 we'd still not have airplanes. (It would probably have been accomplished by other people by 1908 or so, 1910 at the latest.)
The internet was just one step in a long line of digital telecommunications networks, starting with telegraphy. See "The Victorian Internet" by Tom Standage
AOL was made far after that and still exploded in popularity. Facebook today is approaching the level of mega AOL.
There is a constant pull between open and closed systems. Nothing the government did ensured networks would be connected together. TCP/IP is such a low level building block it’s easy to create closed networks with it.
Maybe "mega-AOL" might've happened, but an open network of networks where there's no parasitic mega-corp acting as gatekeeper and tollbooth operator? Citation needed.