First, household formation has accelerated dramatically over the last 5 years (see article below). This trend will likely continue, and/or accelerate for many more years. Many of the major homebuilders have seen this coming (e.g. DR Horton).
Second, the lost value of office buildings did not merely dissipate - it just follows where people are spending time. Data from Kastle Systems suggests foot traffic back to office is roughly half of what it was pre-covid (40% to 50%). Those hours people are not in an office, they are in homes. If you have a bunch of adults spending ~20 additional hours per week in the home, they will value their homes more.
When I was doing appraisal in the aftermath of 08, the buyers driving the speculation looked nothing like the buyers waiting in line today.
First, household formation has accelerated dramatically over the last 5 years (see article below). This trend will likely continue, and/or accelerate for many more years. Many of the major homebuilders have seen this coming (e.g. DR Horton).
Second, the lost value of office buildings did not merely dissipate - it just follows where people are spending time. Data from Kastle Systems suggests foot traffic back to office is roughly half of what it was pre-covid (40% to 50%). Those hours people are not in an office, they are in homes. If you have a bunch of adults spending ~20 additional hours per week in the home, they will value their homes more.
When I was doing appraisal in the aftermath of 08, the buyers driving the speculation looked nothing like the buyers waiting in line today.
https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/surge-household-growth-and....