Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.8% to 4.3% q/q saar. [Oct 20th estimate]
From Goldman:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +4.0% (qoq ar). [Oct 19th estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.4 percent on October 18, unchanged from October 17 after rounding. [Oct 18th estimate]
Combine that with looking around at the commercial real estate situation.
Then there's the pretty historical tightening cycle the Fed just went through. Recessions usually hit 6-12 months after the Fed stops tightening, because it takes time for loans to roll over into the new interest rate regime and for the costs to really bite.
And look around at all the companies that have been surviving off of cheap debt from ZIRP running at zero or negative return on capital / operational earnings while trying to grow at all costs who are now "right-sizing" and laying people off.
Meanwhile:
From BofA:
From Goldman: And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBUT https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicator... is forecasting at least a mild recession.