Their largest in-development rocket is tiny, like a 1/4th the size of New Shepherd? Nowhere is it mentioned what orbital rocket would be launching from this spaceport. Just back of napkin I can't imagine you'll see any orbital payload delivered from this pad by 2030?
The obvious thing for Europe to do would be have ESA fund a replica of NASA's COTS/CCDev/HLS programs, which have overall delivered stunning return on investment and arguably the only reason China isn't absolutely dominating space launches now. This type of token "spaceport to nowhere" pet project is going to deliver absolutely zilch. Ariane 6 is a dead end and there appears to be no plan forward.
The only reason China isn’t dominating is because of SpaceX. NASA helping fund flights is great and helpful to SpaceX but don’t mistakenly credit NASA for SpaceX’s success.
It was more than helpful; SpaceX would have failed without the COTS contract.
There's a tendency by some to describe money paid out by the government for services rendered as "government funding", framed like some sort of unearned charitable gift given by the government to the company which entitles the government to all of the credit in the end. This is an immature point of view that is often the product of motivated reasoning (particularly, motivated by personal dislike of the people/companies involved. There's also some people who thought that capitalism would be trapped on earth with space being the exclusive domain of governments, and are bitter to realize that won't be the case.) Maybe your comment is reacting in part to this tendency, I find myself frustrated with it as well.
Nevertheless, the truth is that SpaceX didn't have the money to develop Falcon 9 until they got that contract. I think themgt is correct to say the creation of contracts like that in Europe could provide European rocket companies the same kind of opportunity to develop technology and prove themselves.
> I think themgt is correct to say the creation of contracts like that in Europe could provide European rocket companies the same kind of opportunity
Europe has literally just spend 5 billion $ on a SINGLE rocket. Its not hard to understand why they don't have money for anything else.
SpaceX was saved by COTS because they were able to borrow money against that contract. And it really only included a couple 100 million to develop the initial Falcon 9. The waste majority of the money was for Dragon.
And they could do it that cheaply and fast because they had the legacy of the Falcon 1 and its infrastructure to build off. And that was mostly developed privately.
At the end of the day SpaceX underbid on COTS and actually didn't make money, it only helped them develop things that would make money other ways.
ESA already had the ATV to do what CommercialCargo does. But because of cost they stopped that program and instead helped with the Orion service module.
They are committed to Orion service module and have no interest in going back to cargo resupply. Given how close the ISS is to the end. By the time they would have finished a new cargo ship, the station is gone be close to gone.
And they simply don't really have the budget for CCDev. It simply doesn't fit in their budget. And even worse, given how absurdly high the cost for the Ariane 6 are, you would expect 6-10 billion for a crew capsule. And you know the European would go for some dumb space plane idea that's gone cost even more.
55° seems ideal if you want to launch at an inclination high enough that the orbits will go over Germany (the domestic tech stuff mentioned in the article) or areas that are of interest for defense reasons (eg Russia)
From what I learned from KSP, a high latitude launch site is helpful for polar orbit. That's why Vandenberg is used for this purpose over Cape Canaveral (or other equatorial launch sites) in the US.
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out because there are other nations participating in ESA that have both land and launch sites that are at higher latitudes than Germany's floating launch site (e.g., [1]).
For reference, Russia's Baiknour is at 45.965°N (about a thousands kilometers difference, not counting longitude.)
A high latitude should work fine for Earth observing satellites that are suited for polar orbits, but I can't help but think it would make more sense for Germany to make a deal with France to share the Guiana Space Centre.
I imagine that having a launch site on far away location isn't ideal for R&D. Location is a US' advantage that's hard to catch up. Not having any lands for east is great.
Stability, long time horizons, can adapt the law to their need, a communication on patriotism, no incentive to squeeze money out of every step, employees protection...
Every weakness can be a strenght depending of the context. Good profiles that would not consider working in high pressure, high risk envs like spacex can be interested in gov projects.
From what I see in Germany, this project will be drowned to death in meetings to prepare meetings to define policies even before the first rivet is ordered to be produced.
Don't forget armies of lawyers spamming hundreds of lawsuits at each and every step no matter how small.
Can't buy a screw without every single other company that might sell screws filing lawsuits. Repeat this for every part, every service, etc. The only winners are the legal parasite class who are very powerful in Germany. This kind of problem isn't unique to Germany of course, but they exemplify it. And if you try to cut through this BS then German people get spooked; I think due to their history they prefer being bogged down in legal BS and are prone to be suspicious of any attempt to cut through red tape. I don't think this will change until the collective psyche of Germany heals.
This is all a bunch of questionable nonsense. Small launch is already an economic terrible and all companies are losing money and are trying to get out of that business. So building an expensive sea based port will simply require even large amount of investment with no more revenue to compensate.
And as for the German government paying for everything, not really gone happen. They are already unhappy about what they have to pay for Ariane 6. They never even wanted Ariane 6. And they have been slushing their space budget.
This seems to me to be a news site making to much of some early concept that are not close to be happening.
I don't get the point of building so far from the equator, the orbital speed in this area is something like half of the orbital speed at the equator. They will have to spend more in rocket fuel to launch the rockets.
Maybe there is something I'm missing there.
Germany's GDP is estimated at $4.4 trillion for 2023.
In 2008, the high before the crash, it was $3.7 trillion. Inflation adjusted that should be $5.4 trillion just to be even with 2008. They have never recovered.
During the good years of the 1990s for the global economy, 1995 was the peak for Germany, and that high was $2.6 trillion. That is $5.3 trillion today. You can pick most years from the 1990s though and it's a bad outcome inflation adjusted to today.
28 years later and the economy needs to increase by 20% just to catch up to where they were in the mid 1990s.
The reason Germany has passed Japan is because they have been suffering from an even worse economic stagnation the past two decades.
Being 3rd first or 28th gives no information about the possibility to start a space endeavor. You can see Ger. is way behind China and USA, which are in a much better position. I’ve been following very near the development of the 3 german companies trying to do rockets. Let me tell you: I do not think they are going nowhere. They are just doing requirement management in Doors for the last year. Nothing useful is coming out.
The SW industry in Germany is really struggling, finding a decent developer is near impossible (ask me how I know!)
"Being 3rd" while only having a fraction of the populace of 1. and 2. still should give some opportunity for ressources. But sure, I am also not really optimistic that anything big is coming out of germanys space adventures anytime soon - but there would be ressources.
What matters to do anything big, is mainly to have ressources avaiable. Then you can buy things you need and pay people to work on that.
And I think we still have lots of enthusiastic space nerds as well - we just don't have any big company or project to draw them together, like Space-X or NASA did. All of the german/european projects are pretty fragmented.
Even if you put the 3 companies trying to make rockets in Germany you get nothing. Just too few people with enough know how. Not even the whole EU could undertake it. Is not about money only, is Human Resources and know how.
This would mean it is more efficient in some way.
If you insist in looking at positions in some ranking, and are interested in that kind of efficiency, then look at GDP per Capita, Germany is 20.
Germany is spending lots of money on ESA and thus Arianespace. Of course they wont do that and ALSO give plenty of funding to startups.
Germany on its own very much could develop its own rocket, the question if just if this is a priority or not. And it isn't.
> Nothing useful is coming out.
They are doing engine test and structural test. Same as pretty much most second generation rocket startups.
And of course they are going 'nowhere' but that has nothing to do with Germany and everything to do with the economics of launch. There is a reason Virgin Orbit went bust. Astra is about to be bust. And a few others will follow soon enough.
I have moved continent. You do not leave friends. If anything, it helps to have even better relations. There is this thing today called internet… family; well that is different. You loose something. But 3x I’m considering it. Is just that moving yet again, after 10 years… is hard.
BTW if you know somebody of those, who can decently code, let me know… because I do not find them!!!
On the other hand, I know some families torn apart over continents. Father in canada, mother in germany. Internet helps only so much for the kids ... in general, relocating with family is a different thing. All of those involved would have to find a new home, friends, etc. that is quite different to moving, when you on your own.
"BTW if you know somebody of those, who can decently code, let me know… because I do not find them!!!"
And depending on what you are looking for and what you can offer, I would be willing to relocate, if the conditions are right. Email is in my profile.
If it would be 300% raise and everything else equal, then yes. But I for example am not a big car fan. Europe is a bit better in that regard. Also vacation days, criminality, the whole work life balance, how would be the new work position(much more stress and pressure, office politics), child care, schools, etc.
Uprooting ones existence has to be worth it and money can make up for something, but not everything.
Yes! Absolutely this is a problem. The 3x factor is very real. Of course you have to still factor in the medical insurance, and evtl. University tuition, if you have kids. But even with that, you are looking at 2x effective.
It's more complicated. Companies have no access to senior software engineers, so companies can't handle complex/large projects, so management doesn't get the experience to derive more value from the engineering work, so the company can't afford senior software engineers (a feedback loop). In this environment junior engineers become senior only by the length of tenure, not by the experience of handling more complexity.
I immigrated to Germany from Israel (and to Israel from Ukraine), so my University friends are all over the world, but not in Germany.
And very bad management in many important and or critical companies which are the pillars of the economy. I can confidently say: some very big companies will go bankrupt starting next year.
Totally agree, but the meantime will not be funny. And the millions wasted to try to save these companies (money from the while EU, not only Germany) will be lost, and not used in more sensible things.
Well, just like how some conspiracy theorists claim people will die from COVID shots 'soon,' but keep adjusting the date, we can expect the Energiewende 'fatality' to happen right around the same time that elusive 'soon' arrives! You know, always on the horizon but never quite here. ;-)
This company apparently doesn't even produce orbital rockets: https://www.t-minus.nl/post/barracuda-rocket-at-esa-pac-symp...
Their largest in-development rocket is tiny, like a 1/4th the size of New Shepherd? Nowhere is it mentioned what orbital rocket would be launching from this spaceport. Just back of napkin I can't imagine you'll see any orbital payload delivered from this pad by 2030?
The obvious thing for Europe to do would be have ESA fund a replica of NASA's COTS/CCDev/HLS programs, which have overall delivered stunning return on investment and arguably the only reason China isn't absolutely dominating space launches now. This type of token "spaceport to nowhere" pet project is going to deliver absolutely zilch. Ariane 6 is a dead end and there appears to be no plan forward.