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This comment is a perfect example of GGP's problem with historical analysis.

As is the nearly-exactly comment in TFA:

> Frankly, if you find yourself in this position the castle is probably already lost.

It's conjecture all the way down.



> It's conjecture

Just like the entire staircase argument?

Except that we actually know that:

> Frankly, if you find yourself in this position the castle is probably already lost.

Was true in almost all cases.




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