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> How the fuck anyone can think using drones, with current technology, can be profitable in consumer-centric logistics?

Thing is, many societies are heading for demographic collapse or are already neck-deep in it (Japan). Even if it may be unprofitable now, we (as a society) need to invest serious amounts of money into automating a lot of unskilled labor, because otherwise we will run into disaster.




You're thinking about automation, not drone deliveries.

Where those aspects intersect is that it seems easier to build an autonomous flying vehicle than an autonomous road-going vehicle. Of course, drones have their own downsides for deliveries, including cost because of small payload.


> Where those aspects intersect is that it seems easier to build an autonomous flying vehicle than an autonomous road-going vehicle.

Someone needs to carry the parcel from the road vehicle, in contrast to a drone that flies up to the customer's window, fire exit or whatever.


> Someone needs to carry the parcel from the road vehicle

Nope ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssrk9bW2xBk

Drones are quite similar, actually: unless they can safely drop into your garden they'll need some sort of secure storage for you to get your parcel from. They are a number of companies working on this: Basically drone lands on top of a locker station and dumps its cargo into it, then you collect your package with a QR code or similar. Even if drones deliver on the roof of residential buildings I think something like that is needed to keep things safe and orderly.


Japan's reproductive stats are not uniquely bad, they just don't accept the same level of immigration as other developed countries.


to be fair, automating all unskilled labor jobs is likely to be a different sort of disaster, specifically for people unable to perform skilled labor.


We've been automating away labor for 250 years now.

It's clearly the best thing that's ever happened in human history, so far.


The "we've been automating since the industrial revolution and jobs have adapted" argument doesn't really account for scale. If I skin my knee (~1% of my skin) once a month for five years, that's hardly an issue. I might even form callouses. If I lose 60% of my skin to injury at once, that's a far bigger situation.


Are you implying that AI will replace 60% of jobs in the time that "regular" progress replaces 1% of jobs?

I agree that that would be a big disruption, and it would take some time to adapt to a 150% increase in productivity.

Some temporary measures to make the adjustment might be needed.

But it would in the end be one of the best things that ever happened to humanity!


If you're rich, that is. Meanwhile, unskilled labor can't pay their rent or buy food.


In the long run, yes. Short term consequences can be devastating so.




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