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Brazil will hit 49c in September this year
29 points by ribas__ on Sept 17, 2023 | hide | past | favorite | 16 comments
Image of the map https://preview.redd.it/5peup8o0upob1.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b1740efc6cd39f91f2318691f6fcf359516e8b2

In recent days, climate models have consistently indicated a potential temperature record in much of central and southern South America. In reality, as the date approaches, the models are indicating even more intense heat.

For the 26th, the models are predicting up to 49°C in Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. But the heat record will affect a large part of Brazil, not just the Midwest. Records are also expected to be set in Paraguay, northern Argentina, and Bolivia.

The models indicate a temperature anomaly of more than 20°C, that is, 20°C above the normal for this time of the year.

In Curitiba, the forecast is up to 39°C (the record in the city is 35°C).

In São Paulo, the forecast is 41°C (the record is 37°C).

In Cuiabá, the forecast is 48°C (the record is 43°C).

In Londrina, the forecast is 44°C (the record is 41°C).

In Campinas, the forecast is 42°C...

You can see the model here: GFS Model – 2m Temperature \(shaded\) for South America | Tropical Tidbits https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=samer&pkg=T2m&runtime=2023091618&fh=0

A heat dome occurs in areas of high pressure that act like heat domes, having descending air (subsidence). This compresses the air on the ground and through compression heats the column of air. In short, a heat dome is created when an area of high pressure remains over the same area for days or even weeks, trapping very hot air below just like a lid on a pot.

It is, therefore, a physical process in the atmosphere. The masses of hot air expand vertically in the atmosphere, creating a high-pressure dome that diverts meteorological systems - like cold fronts - around it. As the high-pressure system settles in a certain region, the air below heats the atmosphere and dissipates cloud cover. The high angle of the summer sun combined with the clear or few clouds sky heats the ground even more.

Evidence from studies suggests that climate change is increasing the frequency of intense heat domes, pumping them higher into the atmosphere, not unlike adding more hot air to an already heated air balloon. Therefore, several studies point to an increase in the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves in Brazil and around the world.

Never in the history of over a century of global climate observation have so many all-time heat records fallen by such a large margin as in the historic heatwave of late June 2021 in the western North America, an effect of a massive heat dome. It was the second most deadly climate disaster of the year with 1,037 deaths: 808 in western Canada and 229 in the northwestern US.

"This was the most anomalous regional extreme heat event to occur anywhere on Earth since the beginning of temperature records. Nothing compares," said climate historian Christopher Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. Pointing to Lytton, Canada, he added, "There has never been a national heat record in a country with an extensive period of record and a multitude of observation locations that was surpassed by 4°C," he said. International meteorological record researcher Maximiliano Herrera agreed. "What we saw is totally unprecedented worldwide," he said. "It is an endless cascade of records being broken," he summarized.

A rapid response study from the World Weather Attribution program found that the high daily temperatures observed in a study area covering much of western Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia in June 2021 would have been "virtually impossible without human-caused climate change." The study estimated that it was approximately a 1 in 1000 year event in today's climate, but in a world with 2°C of global warming, which is projected for two decades from now, a similar event could occur approximately every five to ten years.



Im 40 now and when I was still in highschool anyone with a brain knew EXACTLY what was going on and what was going to happen.

As a kid I was ANGRY. ANGRY that people just would not stop destroying my planet. I was angry for a long time. I would tell people facts, like that 95% (now 98%) of large sharks were gone and people would say, "do you have any idea how BIG the ocean is?..."

Anyway, 20+ years went by, nothing changed, people still won't stop driving (actually they all traded in for cars that do MORE environmental damage but go SUPER fast and make them feel good). We praise billionairs like Elon and Taylor swift who are doing more damage than like 100 million people combined, yet they are heroes to many.

That is, at this point I say either let it burn or we'll burn it down ourselves, either way, good riddance.


I’m 53 and when I was in high school I was highly aware of global warming and wondering why the @#%! Greens were so opposed to nuclear power (apart from the obvious, that they were useful idiots manipulated by the Soviet Union).


I built my house with a good HVAC system. It's always 22C in Campinas to me. Hehe thanks


I wonder, does your HVAC system work without power? Considering that any electric grid might just collapse when everyone flips on their air conditioning in 49 °C heat?


It's not just increased demand. The typical power generator is a heat engine and an important part of heat engines is cooling. In the case of electric power generation you need to condense the steam back to water. You need water below a certain temperature in order to do that. If your river or lake gets too hot - you have to shut the unit down.


I have a solar cell grid system barely auto sufficient in power generation.

Brazil does great in solar radiation, I'm only not 100% off grid yet because my wife have an EV.


Typical middle to upper class Brazilian mentality.

I got mine, who cares if the world burns? I can’t save it.

I don’t blame you, the mess Brazil is in seems irresolvable. But this sentence is deeply low in empathy.

Source: am Brazilian


Why would you have any empathy? Last few years I actually felt a bit of pride in my nationality but that's gone now. All that's left is a crushing hopelessness.

Daniel Plainview mode is the only reasonable way to live as a brazilian. You just want to make enough money and get away from everyone, get away from the society that disgusts you.


What a lovely ending Plainview had.

There are many ways to live with tragedy. Becoming a cynic is just one of them.


Lovely indeed. Much better fate than what the vast majority of brazilians will ever experience.


Exactly! I simply don't care.

Brazilians are corrupt in its essence, government and justice are just a direct reflection of ourselves.

In fact, 300k years of history of hypocrisy. Earth will be better off without us here.

I just want to see the world burn, but in a 22C room with a big screen as long as possible.


Careful you get what you wish for.


NOAA reports climate stats, with monthly updates. Entry point at page for North+South temperature excursions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Extratropics/fige...


São Paulo resident here. 41C in São paulo is much, much worse than 41C in cities like Recife or Natal in the Northeast region due to humidity. Summers here are humid, which makes it harder for the body to cool itself.

This is going to be a difficult summer...


This is not about summer. It is about the very start of the spring, just after the end of winter. "Difficult" for summer is an understatement.


49°C = 120.2°F




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