I think Bret Devereaux's article on why the Industrial Revolution started in Britain and not elsewhere is quite interesting ([1]). The Industrial Revolution happened not only because of advances in politics and engineering, but also because of Britain's unique geography: Early Britons chopped down many of the British forests, and so later Britons were forced to make use of coal. Trying to extract more coal more cheaply led to the industrial revolution.
This explains why the industrial revolution did not begin in China or the Roman Empire. There are some counterarguments to Devereaux's claims given in [2] and in the HN article.
The Song dynasty collapsed when Genghis Khan (edit: Kublai Khan) invaded China.
A similar thing happened to the Mughal Empire in the 1700s as well, when it collapsed due to Maratha, Pakhtun, and Punjabi expansion despite Bengal, Gujarat? Sindh, and Punjab Subha showing signs of proto-industrialization.
The same thing happened to the Safavid Empire roughly the same time as well.
Wars, especially invasions, are devastating to prospering economies.
I'm no "expert" in history, but I strongly suspect the reason the industrial revolution started in Britain was because of its geography -- the sea provided protection against invaders. Its relatively small size also made governance relatively easy. (Larger empires frequently collapse upon themselves if mismanaged) While nations in continental Europe had to constantly deal with military threats, Britain just kept slowly chugging along until it got its chance: being an island country during the golden age of maritime trade.
>...The Song dynasty collapsed when Genghis Khan invaded China.
Not trying to derail your point, but that was Kublai Khan, not Genghis Khan.
>...After two decades of sporadic warfare, Kublai Khan's armies conquered the Song dynasty in 1279 after defeating the Southern Song in the Battle of Yamen, and reunited China under the Yuan dynasty
That said Genghis Khan did invade northern China, which was not controlled by the Song at the time but by the Jin dynasty. (Which is probably what the AOE 2 campaign was about.)
France and what became Germany didn't fight a war over Alsace Loraine until 1871, well after industrialization was on track, plus it wasn't a war of plunder, unlike what the Mongols did to the Song or the Pakhtun, Sikh, and Maratha Confederacies did to the Mughals.
I don't have enough expertise to have a strong opinion either way, but I know that Anton Howes thinks coal exploitation led to increased deforestation, not the other way around:
> It’s also wrong to say that Britain exploited coal and invented the steam engine because of deforestation. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of greater coal use being demand-led (eg from London growth) and cause of deforestation (will write more on this soon)
This explains why the industrial revolution did not begin in China or the Roman Empire. There are some counterarguments to Devereaux's claims given in [2] and in the HN article.
[1] - https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-indus...
[2] - https://rootsofprogress.org/why-no-roman-industrial-revoluti...