I didn’t touch LLMs yet, but was hardcore learning SD and satellite nets last two weeks in a full workday mode. If they are similar, then I assure you that the complexity of being able to create something detailed that you want is on par with bare full-stack of stacks style programming. My brain melts down at the end of every day. It will put people out of jobs. But the hiring pool for that new domain will consist of the exact same people and double the deficit. Random, seemingly effortless examples may wow-trick one into thinking that it’s over. Doesn’t feel like it once you try it yourself. But when you succeed, the results are indeed impressive.
One is that I love being able to effortlessly program in scripts & source languages I don’t know.
The LLM quickly creates drafts from my requests and assists in my debugging or polishing the code, based on the results as I apply it.
Two, this is the beginning. LLM’s will never be this incompetent again.
Any judgement on them that doesn’t acknowledge that we now have a runaway improvement situation, a best used by date for all limitations, isn’t complete.
Three decades is the longest, most pessimistic, time frame I see for us to be critiquing “their” code in any way. After that, it’s an interesting question if they will be critiquing our code or just trash canning it all.
We are living through one of just a few transformational moments in our universe. So far. Hard to fathom.
> After that, it’s an interesting question if they will be critiquing our code or just trash canning it all.
I feel like with many replacement technologies, the human condition leads to nothing being fully replaced, even assuming your runaway theory to be true. Ok, so there is super seemingly good code coming out of LLM in a decade or two but no human does understand it anymore and it will not be fully trusted. You will end up having the option to choose unproven, mystical, machine-generated programs or pain-stakingly handcrafted programs produced by "programming artisans" with a good reputation for 10-100x the price.
Furthermore, I feel like with some packages I have built, the documentation, the packaging and publishing and everything else around it took more time than the actual programming. In the future, there might even be mandatory certifications of it if the EU gets even more controlling. If the LLM doesn't get good at all of these tasks, it will only ever replace the small part of pure programming and as with Amdahl's law, it will at some point only yield diminishing returns in efficiency increase.
