Outcome: frustrate burners into potentially off-roading all over the desert ecosystem outside of a designated area. Idling longer which increases emissions over their normal journey.
Making some burners behave even worse is a rounding error in the event's overall impact.
But visibly and impactfully protesting their waste en-route to their week of tripping balls might actually cause some reflection and long-term changed behaviors. Set and setting, right?
> The event itself is a rounding error on things that actually cause a climate impact. The activists are wasting their time.
Through network effects if you could actually affect the behavior of these folks it could move some needles. And when it's pretty much a certainty they're are about to go squeegee their third eye, we're talking about a particularly susceptible group WRT changing their minds[0].
I think there are worse ways to waste your time as an activist.
It is a bummer that climate change will not be averted during Burning Man this year, as was the goal of this protest. You make an interesting point that since climate change will likely continue into September at least, it will paradoxically be the fault of the protesters.
Too bad that they didn’t set a more reasonable goal of “piss off burners to the extent that maybe fewer decide to come back next time”, at least they might’ve been able to call this a win.
...and, that attempt at force was then met with an opposing force; but not before infuriating large numbers of people who might otherwise have given some thought to the original point.
I'm sure that they never expected their disruption to actually change anyone's mind. Of course, they're never going to admit this, and will always claim to be "peacefully raising awareness" or somesuch. They won't say: "we're gonna go irritate hundreds of people, then get arrested on camera for publicity".
People will think about this story-they'll be thinking about how to donate to the Paiute Tribal Police auxiliary fund so the guys in the truck can have a cookout after work.
Outcome: frustrate burners into potentially off-roading all over the desert ecosystem outside of a designated area. Idling longer which increases emissions over their normal journey.