On the left the unusual cloud looks very much like the contrail of a missile like object flying mostlt vertically.
But his jet would be too high for a manpad, and a fighter jet would have likely fired from above cloud cover and missile wouldn't have left a contrail. There is some separation between left suspect cloud and the start of the jets con/smoke even. The visible jets con/smoke is wobbly which makes it seem like the was jet hit and then started tumbling before it breaks apart at quite low altitude. Whatever happened rapidly made the jet enter unstable flight.
Is it likely the plane was shot down if so likely a shoot and scoot system like pantasir S1, or the cloud is nothing and it was a small bomb on board.
But his jet would be too high for a manpad, and a fighter jet would have likely fired from above cloud cover and missile wouldn't have left a contrail. There is some separation between left suspect cloud and the start of the jets con/smoke even. The visible jets con/smoke is wobbly which makes it seem like the was jet hit and then started tumbling before it breaks apart at quite low altitude. Whatever happened rapidly made the jet enter unstable flight.
Is it likely the plane was shot down if so likely a shoot and scoot system like pantasir S1, or the cloud is nothing and it was a small bomb on board.
I put my money on faking his own death.
Mostly uninformed hot take.