The best part is that it plausibly could have been an accident. Russia has shot down MULTIPLE of their own planes and helicopters, and allegedly russian SAM crews are under trained and very very much on edge, and that was before a drone blew up next to the kremlin and multiple drones exploding in moscow for like an entire week.
AUI752 was shot down by Iranians, not Russians. They happened to be using gear bought from Russia, but that's not really important.
MH17 wasn't shot down by the Russian military either, but independent rebels. Basically Russia gave anti-aircraft equipment to disorganized yahoos, who then proceeded to do disorganized yahoo things with it. Surprised Pikachu face.
All of this could have happened with US equipment too; the equipment wasn't at fault, the choices people made were at fault, and those choices weren't (directly) made by the Russian military.
That said, friendly fire has happened in combat zones (e.g. [1]), but this is ... kind of normal and happens in any armed force, and Prigozhin's plane wasn't anywhere near a combat zone. It's still possible it was mistaken for a drone or missile (especially as there have been missile attacks), but I don't know ... seems a little to coincidental it just so happens to be Prigozhin's plane, especially with the history of people inconvenient to Putin falling out of windows, down stairs, ending up with radioactive material in their possession without their knowledge, brutally accidentally cutting of their own head while combing their hair, etc.
Russian weapons taking down civilian aircraft all the time V.S. Western weapons not doing this despite its much widespread use(check out the number of US bases) can be an indication of weapon design issues or limitations.
It's not true that AUI752 or MH17 was done by choice, it's very unlikely that those who destroyed these planes wanted to kill bunch of civilians in a very high profile fashion to spice up their already precarious situations.
It's probably not the case with the Wagner situation because there's a motive and symbolism but I also wouldn't omit the possibility of it being a "happy accident" for Putin. An oopsie by overly alert operator expecting yet another drone attack.
This has happened to the U.S. with Iran Air 655. Ultimately shooting at an aircraft based just on a radar blip is inherently error prone. The biggest difference probably is that the U.S. relies more on fighters for air defense and usually the rules of engagement require a visual confirmation, which is very unlikely to mistake an airliner for a military jet.
