I'm not sure I agree. I sign up to a lot of services and then don't really pay them much attention until I see critical mass. Then I can pop right in and start using it without friction. My reddit user number is #1984, but I didn't bother with it until like 2012 or so. Millions of users checked Threads out and then said, "meh". But if the enthusiasts continue to use it, all those users might just jump back in.
So if Twitter keeps imploding, and Threads fans keep plugging away slowly gaining more converts, there could be a tipping point. Or the opposite could just as easily happen as well, and Threads becomes a ghost town. There have been a few cycles of users abandoning one platform en masse before, and I don't see any reason why it couldn't happen again.
> The problem is that it's pretty rare that you re-convert a churned user.
Pretty sure this isn't true. Reconverting a former customer is cheaper than converting new customers from an advertising perspective. I wouldn't imagine that social media customers are any different.
I will say that it is generally cheaper to keep an existing customer than to re-covert them later, but that's a separate issue.
I imagine the case here is that people downloaded threads to check it out, and then stopped using it because the network wan't as large as Twitters'.
> Reconverting a former customer is cheaper than converting new customers from an advertising perspective
It depends for what? In mobile games for instance you're considered to have burned the user out if they churn from the game's first 5 hours. Hence the Pokemon Go problem - they'd rather have scaled the user base slowly than have a flash in the pan. [1]
I understand in retail or maybe a gym membership, re-conversion may be easier.
1. Im aware Pokemon Go is still a succesful game, but my point is it would have been better to scale slower.
I don’t think that’s true at all. I have a few mutuals on Mastodon who appeared on Mastodon a few times when Elon did something particularly stupid, then went idle again. Eventually some of them stayed, whether because of exceptionally nonsense Twitter stuff, or because they got used to the place. This was all largely before Threads was an option, though, and I’d assume that those sort of low-stickiness users will mostly end up there instead.
If unraveling means "gains 10% of the market in the first month after launch", then I would love for my next business to "unravel"