We're only about a year into the post chat gpt world. We've seen nothing yet.
Asking humans to do things manually that a computer can do effortlessly and flawlessly is going to be relatively low value. I remember going to school and having to learn to work out on paper how to multiply and divide numbers. The home work was super tedious and I was bored with it. And right in front of me was the solution: a calculator. This was the early nineteen eighties. I'm sure I could work out from first principles how that stuff works but I haven't multiplied or divided large numbers manually ever since I was allowed to actually use a calculator in high school about 35 years ago. Why would I? It's tedious, error prone, slow, and I have multiple tools within reach that can do this for me.
The adoption of AI is the same thing. The generation after us will not know a world where AI wasn't a thing and will use it without even thinking about it. Effortlessly, skillfully, and effectively. And they'll be better off, mostly. Us old timers rambling about the lost art of writing (and a lot of other skills) are basically just like any generation that got confronted with the world changing around them, no longer relevant. Besides, if you've ever had the pleasure of having to grade a bunch of student essays, you'd realize that most of them are not great writers to begin with. Not having to read a lot of badly written garbage is actually an improvement. And being able to ask an AI to extract the essentials of any human produced drivel is probably a great productivity enhancer as well.
In the same way, I don't need some second rate lawyer messing up legal work and overcharging me for the privilege when I can have an AI do it right. AIs are passing bar exams now so that doesn't seem like an unreasonable expectation. Once it stops hallucinating, we can get rid of the remaining lawyers. I run a startup and I deal with lots of weird and hairy legal issues related to HR, taxes & profit, NDAs, sales contracts, etc. Mostly that still requires getting legal advice from skilled individuals. Our startup is in Germany and I'm not a native speaker. This shit is super complicated and exactly the kind of stuff where you can get a lot of value out of AIs. We still cross check these things with actual lawyers. But it saves a lot of time, effort, and billable hours if you can get a grip on these things before you talk to them.
Artisanally figuring it out all by yourself unassisted by modern tools might be interesting to some as an artistic expression, or for esthetic/sentimental reasons, or whatever. But when the end result is mediocre and sub par, it won't have a lot of value to others. It's like a toddler drawing something. It's cute and generally greatly appreciated by parents/grand parents/etc.. And just because we now have mid journey, doesn't mean the toddler's drawing has less value for them. But let's face it, most toddlers don't turn into great artists.
I feel any method that is powerful enough to dependably act as an attourney is powerful enough to found its own company, write software, acquire clients, subcontract etc.
With the expression I meant the realization of a business idea into a self-sustaining business.
Asking humans to do things manually that a computer can do effortlessly and flawlessly is going to be relatively low value. I remember going to school and having to learn to work out on paper how to multiply and divide numbers. The home work was super tedious and I was bored with it. And right in front of me was the solution: a calculator. This was the early nineteen eighties. I'm sure I could work out from first principles how that stuff works but I haven't multiplied or divided large numbers manually ever since I was allowed to actually use a calculator in high school about 35 years ago. Why would I? It's tedious, error prone, slow, and I have multiple tools within reach that can do this for me.
The adoption of AI is the same thing. The generation after us will not know a world where AI wasn't a thing and will use it without even thinking about it. Effortlessly, skillfully, and effectively. And they'll be better off, mostly. Us old timers rambling about the lost art of writing (and a lot of other skills) are basically just like any generation that got confronted with the world changing around them, no longer relevant. Besides, if you've ever had the pleasure of having to grade a bunch of student essays, you'd realize that most of them are not great writers to begin with. Not having to read a lot of badly written garbage is actually an improvement. And being able to ask an AI to extract the essentials of any human produced drivel is probably a great productivity enhancer as well.
In the same way, I don't need some second rate lawyer messing up legal work and overcharging me for the privilege when I can have an AI do it right. AIs are passing bar exams now so that doesn't seem like an unreasonable expectation. Once it stops hallucinating, we can get rid of the remaining lawyers. I run a startup and I deal with lots of weird and hairy legal issues related to HR, taxes & profit, NDAs, sales contracts, etc. Mostly that still requires getting legal advice from skilled individuals. Our startup is in Germany and I'm not a native speaker. This shit is super complicated and exactly the kind of stuff where you can get a lot of value out of AIs. We still cross check these things with actual lawyers. But it saves a lot of time, effort, and billable hours if you can get a grip on these things before you talk to them.
Artisanally figuring it out all by yourself unassisted by modern tools might be interesting to some as an artistic expression, or for esthetic/sentimental reasons, or whatever. But when the end result is mediocre and sub par, it won't have a lot of value to others. It's like a toddler drawing something. It's cute and generally greatly appreciated by parents/grand parents/etc.. And just because we now have mid journey, doesn't mean the toddler's drawing has less value for them. But let's face it, most toddlers don't turn into great artists.