Here's an excerpt from one of the latest reports from SEC [1] about CEO selling stock:
> The transactions reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the Reporting Person on August 26, 2022, during an open trading window.
Doesn't mean much. With as much SEC scrutiny as the company is currently undergoing, he'd be a fool to run afoul of insider trading laws, which strongly implies that he's not in possession of any material non-public information. Besides, there are lots of reasons to sell, but only one reason to buy. Based on that chart, I'm far more interested in what Fred Ehrsam is thinking…
I think if the CEO of the company has material non-public information and is trading based on it, then there is a 100% chance the SEC, which is already looking closely at the company, will come down hard on him, including disgorgement and massive fines, and even potentially working with the DOJ to file criminal charges and put him in prison—all of which they're dying to do in their effort to assert their authority over cryptocurrency, as Brian Armstrong is acutely aware if he has any attorneys worth half a damn.
So I believe he very probably does not currently have any material non-public information, or at the very least is not trading on the basis of having it.
It is, under rule 10b5-1. But so what? The CEO goes through with a sale of stock that was planned and announced months ago, at a time when he definitively had no material non-public information, and everyone goes shocked Pikachu face? It makes no sense.
Having to plan it months in advance takes some of the short term trading aspect away. You can have no idea what markets will be doing months from now.
You obviously have material non public information as CEO, but you could just as easily lose by trying to trade that as win when there’s such a long delay involved. Everybody else gets to see what your trade is, with plenty of notice, and can front run you.
