But AI CAN animate a character, they've animated a bear riding a skateboard, or dolphin surfing, etc.
Albeit it's kinda shitty and imperfect but the proof of concept is already there, it's basically stable diffusion at the pre-prototype stages. Given 2 years it'll be able to churn full videos.
I've already begun creating a Youtube shorts channel fully made of videos created by AI + CC licensed images and videos.
I consult companies to do similar things, etc. There's a whole world out there that is going to change overnight. I'd say AGI is 4-5 years away tops. At that point, all bets are off the table.
The reason I consult in AI? Contingency plan, if AI becomes the last major industry. I've got a family to support (that and I'm obsessed with the novelty and exciting things I can do with AI -- in the same way the scientist in Independence day is "excited" when the aliens come because all the stuff turned on in their captured spaceship - i.e. it's cool, but maybe I shouldn't be so giddy since it could spell our eventual doom).
No, this will most likely not happen in 2 years, because it's not a straightforward progression from the current state of the art.
Generating realistic video requires using 3D models, instead of the 2D models that Stable Diffusion and similar use now. To get beyond a crappy level, at least two problems have to be tackled:
1. More example data has to be available. There is an abundance of 2D video and still images, on which the current systems are trained. There is, however, not enough 3D footage.
2. The systems that generate 2D images now cannot easily scale up to 3D images. Point clouds would require ~1000 times the amount of data, and 3D meshes are so different from images, that current techniques won't work.
So, yes, it is possible that this will happen in two years time, but it seems highly unlikely.
What I deem possible in two years time is generating animations such as cartoons, in which a perfect understanding of a 3D world is not required. And this would still require a lot of human input to be anywhere near interesting.
Also, if you consult companies about this, and say that AGI is 4-5 years away, then I wonder if you are trolling, and I should possibly have refrained from writing this comment. If you are not trolling, please consult a book on AI, or any SF novel for that matter, from the 1960s.
Note that I used the word "currently". Given enough time, AI will be able to do things way beyond my current comprehension.