0.01% is very optimistic too I think. It could very well be 0%. The reason Google /Microsoft/Apple got to that scale is because incumbent corporations like IBM let them do so, totally missing the bandwagon on the Internet, personal computing and mobile. I seriously doubt Google/Microsoft/Apple will let small startups get to their scale without a fight (or aggressive buyouts.)
Big corporations don't miss disruptive trends. They crush any internal efforts to capture them out of fear of compromising the main profit lines and end up missing out. IBM didn't miss the bandwagon on mobile, Internet, or personal computing.
The IBM PC was what everyone outside a few niche companies copied. IBM Simon beat the iPhone by over a decade and probably could have been significant with a few iterations. Almost every modem used to connect to the early commercial internet slotted into an IBM clone. They built the wagon, but every time they had to make a choice on how to proceed, they chose poorly.
Fair point. But don't you think that companies today have learned from the mistakes of the past? Also they have way more cash for aggressively buying out disruptors.
Google: Invented the transformer, but didn't do much with it. Google Assistant probably uses this tech and has been around, but it was ChatGPT that took the world by storm. Bard was useless at launch, and doesn't seem much better today. Google's recent history is littered with heralded launches and unceremonious closures shortly after. Time will tell if they can turn it around.
Microsoft spent a long time resting on its laurels before starting to innovate again, but then they fell back into their old ways. Every smart move is hampered by the continuing need to subsume innovation to serve a desktop OS monopoly with declining relevance. LLMs are headed away from the silos that birthed the revolution toward on-board purpose-built LLMs that are entirely within the user's control, so Copilot's days are numbered. Even integrated GPUs will have enough power and memory to run the better LLMs in 5-10 years.
Apple: back to selling overpriced PCs. Bringing SOCs in from mobile to the desktop is an interesting move, but Microsoft and Windows PCs are likely to beat them on price and features once that world catches up. They're in for a period of mistaking profit growth for innovation the way all big companies do. The pivot to services will be fraught, hindered by corporate inertia, and possibly kill the company. They've had on-board ML cores in all their mobile devices for years, and the best they could do was Siri.
