Bitcoin has proven to be an inflation resistant store of value enabling private and fast transactions to anywhere in the world - seems pretty successful to me despite being constantly derided by hacker news for over 10 years now.
Almost every word of that is untrue in practice. But let's focus on the core part, "successful".
Let's compare with M-PESA, a money transfer solution that started around the same time. M-PESA has steadily grown, doing 26 billion transactions last year. [1] Bitcoin was somewhere around 100m transactions for the same period. [2] That's about 0.5% of the volume. And its worse than the raw numbers suggest, in that the M-PESA transactions were things with positive economic impact, whereas a lot of the Bitcoin activity was driven by speculation or crime.
And that's wildly smaller than the number of credit and debit transactions that happened over the same time, of course. Bitcoin was hoping to be "electronic cash", but the shift away from physical cash was toward the already existing digital payment mechanisms, not Bitcoin. Merchant adoption, always small, went into decline years ago.
So no, Bitcoin was not successful in the sort of terms that match its initial goals or what was hyped in the early years.
Firstly, Transaction volume and total number of transactions are two different metrics. Bitcoin transactions are generally in the $400k-$800k range. Couple things that makes bitcoin more than what it appears:
The metrics you quoted are on chain. There are no telling how many transactions are rolled up through the lightening network.
With around $20B of various wrapped bitcoins being used in defi, you can easily put that number up to hundreds of millions of transactions 'a-day' because bitcoin is being used as collatoral.
We are in a 'bear market' for crypto and it's market cap is $600B, which is larger than some countries let alone M-PESA.
I have a lot of questions about people who are making $400k-$800k cash-like transactions. But as far as I'm concerned, that's another sign of Bitcoin's failure in terms of its original goals. That's a sign that Bitcoin is even less useful for productive economic activity.
> market cap is $600B
Sorry, but talking about "market cap" for currencies and commodities is ridiculous. What's the market cap of the US dollar? What's the market cap of gold? Those are fundamentally stupid questions, because "market cap" only applies to equities, which are pieces of a single entity that is both economically productive and owns a bunch of assets. Market capitalization matters because with a company, anybody with enough money can go out and buy the whole thing. It's not a meaningful number for a currency or a commodity. Or for a cryptocurrency.
Money supply (M0, M1, M2, etc.) is an important concept, no citation needed.
Your quarrel seems be with the broad application of the term "market capitalization." From context, it's clear what people mean, much as it's clear what it means to "dial" a phone number on a phone that doesn't have a dial. Surely there's a better response against digital currencies than stating that Bitcoin's $607B aggregate value isn't technically called a "market cap."
It is clear what it means: a bunch of grifters are trying to pretend their magic beans are an actual investment like equities are. So they want a big and impressive sounding numbers, especially one that can be easily manipulated by wash trades and the like.
> Bitcoin transactions are generally in the $400k-$800k range.
What percentage of those 400k-800k transactions do you think are by the very banks and hedge funds that crypto advocates claim to be subverting and defying? For a currency that is supposed to help the masses that sure doesn’t seem like the kind of money most people play with.
Read my post, I said successful as a 'store of value' not 'electronic cash'.
Bitcoin is more akin to gold - an inflation resistant store of value. There is a premium for transacting it which means you should convert it into a more inflation prone transactional currency if you want to spend it.
Well look at those goalposts move. Bitcoin's original purpose was precisely electronic cash: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
But if you'd like to shift focus to why "store of value" is also wrong, I'm glad to. A store of value needs to be more stable than the thing you're moving out of. It also needs to be relatively liquid, and should have low transaction costs. But Bitcoin is very volatile compared with major fiat currencies, and also when compared with gold. Transaction costs are relatively high. The market is thinly traded, and is widely believed to be manipulated. Gold, in contrast, is more liquid, cheaper to trade in, and much better regulated.
So no, Bitcoin doesn't make for a good store of value. People wanting to store value would generally be much better off buying index funds, which are also pretty inflation resistant, and also have a positive return. But if they want to avoid equity exposure, then the gold standard for this is, well, gold. Bitcoin is terrible by comparison.
Again you're mixing up short term cash and long term store of value.
Cash you want stability, fast and low cost transactions - you pay for all those benefits with inflation.
A good long term store of value you will sacrifice a little of all those things for better inflation resistance.
Gold and index funds are also good for long term value storage, but index funds you can't really use as a medium for exchange, and gold is physical so not great for easy and quick transactions.
You have ignored the central part of this: volatility. Bitcoin is not a good store of value. I don't have time for people who argue so misleadingly, so I'm done here.
Cool, well the price of Bitcoin disagrees with you. Maybe you should think why after 10 years of the same tired arguments, Bitcoin is still going strong. How many years of success will it take for you to change your mind? Serious question.
BTC seems to be very interest rate dependent- it goes up when rates go down and down when rates go up. That is pretty much the opposite of an "inflation resistant store of value". It's financial behavior over the last ten years isn't that of a "inflation resistant store of value" its that of a "speculative, very risky investment."
Ideologically, to a certain type of person, it should be inflation resistant. The math says so! But the markets have judged it to not be so. So who are you going to trust? Your ideology or the market?
This site is full of people who are in a tech rat race, and the distribution has changed over time. It's now biased largely against crypto, and for reasons that I think are fairly clear:
Most of the users who would have agreed with you already got rich, because they understood the things you understand, and they don't use the site much anymore as a result (they are no longer in the rat race). They've mostly checked out.
So, because the people who remain on this site are those who never bought any, and people like to hear that they were right, the groupthink tends to be unrealistically negative about it.
The value will deflate at some point, it's kind of a mathematical certainty. We cannot extract more money from the system than we put in, since Bitcoin is a non-productive asset. It does not generate revenue the way that a business/company does. And someone has to pay for the electricity of the miners, so money is draining out of the system, making it a negative sum game that people are playing.
I would also disagree that the transactions are fast or private.
Private as in independent of going through any bank or institution like you would have to do to move money internationally in any other form.
A store of value like gold, the dollar, or Bitcoin has nothing to do with generating revenue - only the intrinsic value of how hard is it to create more - dollars can be printed, a gold vein can be discovered tomorrow that would crash the price, Bitcoin on the other hand there's no chance of creating more than what's planned - which makes it a great store of value in turn valuable.
One nice thing about gold is that we don't have to keep paying money for gold to continue to exist. It will sit on a shelf and not charge us any money for sitting there. Bitcoin exists on a network of computers that need electricity to run. If we stopped paying for this network to run, the bitcoin would stop existing, since the ownership of bitcoin really is solely determined by the ownership records on this computer network.
That is my argument, that Bitcoin cannot maintain its value long term because the value is leaking out of the system in the form of electricity bills. Furthermore, we cannot let these bills become too small, or else the network becomes vulnerable to a 51% attack, so as a society we collectively must pay a large amount of "rent" on this store of value, which causes the value in this value pool to slowly deflate over time.
We have been overcoming this drain so far by "investors" continuing to pour money into the system, but those investors cannot possibly get all of their money back, because it's been spent on electricity.
By your own argument gold is expensive - expensive to secure, expensive to transport, slow to transport (time is money), expensive to verify. So yes it does cost money to hold and transact gold. So your same 'leaky' argument applies. Maintaining any store of value or currency is never free, but the benefits far outweigh the costs as now we have an inflation resistant medium on which to trade goods and services with.
Well I'm not trying to argue for gold being a good store of value either, it might not be. But another reason why I would prefer to have gold is that people make use of gold to make jewelry and electronics, so that creates a demand that helps to prop up its value.
The point I was making is that in a passive state, just sitting on a shelf, I believe that the cost of maintaining ownership of all the gold in the world is orders of magnitude lower than the cost of maintaining the entire bitcoin network, and I think that must continue to be the case due to the threat of 51% attacks. (If the cost of running the bitcoin network drops below a certain threshold, it becomes profitable for a rogue actor to rent a large amount of compute power and force in some fraudulent transactions.) So I believe that the "leaky bucket" effect is stronger with bitcoin than it is with gold, and there isn't a similar real world use case of bitcoin similar to the manufacturing of jewelry like there is for gold to counteract this leak.
Therefore, the total value held by all of the holders of bitcoin must be declining due to this leak, which counteracts the idea that it is inflation resistant in the long term.
Your passive analogy doesn't work because Gold needs to be secured and defended, which requires energy or other people are going to steal it.
Just like Bitcoin needs to be secured and defended with compute for at least new transactions. A 51% attack will allow you block new transactions or double spend coins you have, not spend or steal other people's coins on the ledger because you don't have the private keys for those.
Yes, and I believe that the total energy needed to secure and defend all the gold in the world is still much lower than the total energy needed to run the entire bitcoin network. I don't feel motivated to do a back of the envelope calculation to justify that claim though, so maybe we disagree on that point. Still, there is the material usage argument for gold that helps it maintain its value that bitcoin does not have going for it.
Even if a 51% attack only allows the attacker to double spend, that is stealing someone's coins, namely the coins of the party that you reversed the transaction on the first time you spent the coins. In addition, once people realized that double spends were occurring and were possible, it would cause a loss of confidence in the coin, causing a loss of perceived value, which then lowers the sale price (i.e. the "actual" value), meaning that the coin would not serving as a very good inflation resistant store of value.
Yep computing the energy comparison we’re not going to figure out here, but if you’re right then it would mean that it would require less energy to attack Fort Knox and take their gold. If not that means Bitcoin requires less energy. So which is it?
I’m going to store my value in the thing that’s harder to crack (which must mean it will require more energy, will it not?)
I didn't say anything about the amount of energy required to steal gold from anyone. I was talking about the energy required to maintain the ownership of the gold. These are two completely different things. If I bury a box of gold in the woods, I can then spend zero energy to keep that box exactly where it is, but a thief might have to spend a lot of energy to dig many holes in the forest ground since they don't know where I buried it. Or, more likely, they don't know who I am or that I own any gold, and the energy required to steal the gold from me is kind of infinite since they have no idea where to start, and would be required to do some sort of brute force search of the entire planet.
The point I was making is that I believe that the bitcoin value storage system burns more energy in a "passive" state, just keeping all the coins safe than the gold storage system, where security by obscurity is doing a lot of the work. As far as whether it takes more energy to mount a 51% attack on the bitcoin network or to rob Fort Knox, I don't know. That is a different and irrelevant question. I'm sure that the energy spent on the guards and A/C and everything for the building containing gold at Fort Knox must be far less than the energy usage of bitcoin, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is easier to steal from Fort Knox and get away with it.
