Inflation is down, the labor market is robust and we are not in a recession so you can expect that the Federal Reserve will quite likely raise interest rates a quarter point at their next meeting. The decrease in inflation is good news for consumers and for policymakers. We still have a bit to go to get to a level of inflation the Fed is comfortable with. Barring a dramatic change in the labor market or the level of overall economic activity, expect further interest rate increases.
This is my interpretation as an economist not at the fed or in another government agency and with access only to the same public information you have, but with a bit more background in macro. As always, I may be wrong!
Of course the Fed is going to raise rates. We’re still near 5% minus food and energy. It’s been going sideways for the last four months and note that this is not the seasonal rate and that in the winter when the energy prices rise, if food and energy stay at 4.8% then the rate of inflation will start to click up again.
"Inflation is down" is ridiculous spin. No, the rate of increase of inflation is down. Oh, and the last several years of insane inflation still happened. Nothing has changed or improved. Recently, I paid almost seven dollars for a single box of Raisin Bran from a large grocer.
>"Inflation is down" is ridiculous spin. No, the rate of increase of inflation is down.
I don't believe for a second you're actually confused. You know very well that "inflation is down" means the inflation rate is down. If inflation were actually down that would be called "deflation" and no one would be celebrating (except the goldbugs).
What news we have is objectively both a change and an improvement. Pretending otherwise is ridiculous. The inflation rate is way down by all metrics.
And it was never all that bad to start with. It never even hit 10%. Inflation was a problem but one modern governments run by adults are demonstrably capable of dealing with. The response didn't even cause a recession!
This is my interpretation as an economist not at the fed or in another government agency and with access only to the same public information you have, but with a bit more background in macro. As always, I may be wrong!