Now I read that Wall Street is creating CDO's based on these loans, like they (continue to) do on mortgages. Some people die "early" without paying back these loans, and sometimes, they will owe more than they took out. Given the mounting problems with the numbers here, it seems a whole generation of people in the middle of this bubble are going to go to the grave while still owing on these loans. What happens to these CDO's? Are we headed for a smaller "meltdown?"
I went to school from 87-91. I could already see the problem starting. I was hoping this bubble would burst before my own children went to school. Two of three have gone to public schools so far, and we've paid through the nose for it. We are pushing our third towards some sort of trade school.
We learned that people like to gamble and that it’s easy to push things forwards.
Also, better jump on the loan band wagon, or you’ll be left out. Anyone without a mortgage + houw which appreciated has basically been robbed by people who do
This is why I’m 100% sure we’re headed towards another real estate meltdown sooner or later. Real estate prices and rates have skyrocketed. The number of people who could afford 500k mortgages at 3% is much higher than people who can afford 750k mortgages at 7%.
But lenders aren’t going to suddenly go from approving 100 loans a month to just 10 a month. The incentive structures are designed to weasel and lie to pump out flattering bottomlines every quarter.
You can trot out the statistics but you can’t change human behavior without changing the incentives.
Looked at this a bit ago and share the sentiment. Vancouver, BC was an excellent case study. House prices average: ~$1.1M. Loan rate average: ~5%. Month payment: $5900. Yearly: $71k. Avg Salary: $60k (before tax). After tax: Maybe $48k or less. Result: No normal worker can afford the loan, and the bank won't give you the loan. You pay everything you can each year, and you owe more. This isn't even with property taxes, utilities, other basic Maslow's heirarchy stuff taken out.
Wonder what percentage of this demand is organic home owners vs. investors (including foreign investors).
There’s been massive capital movement across the globe. Money moving out of China and Russia in particular. And the gulf countries with a surplus of cash thanks to multiple years of expensive oil.
There might be something to that. Russia has become a bad place to invest money, while china’s real estate bubble looks to finally be popping. It could be that Russians and Chinese are accelerating on capital flight from their own countries due to current circumstances.
But it’s really just speculation. I haven’t noticed an influx of ore Chinese buyers into my market.
You can track political developments in China, Russia, and Saudi by the price of BTC and foreign housing (esp. places like Vancouver, Canada, or London, England).
Effectively a stealth tax for most graduates, if they can't ever hope to repay it. But regressive if you're rich enough to pay it off… or never have need for it to begin with.
One of the core elements of the 2008 meltdown was when someone abandoned a house, all the other houses in the neighborhood would see a substantial drop in their value. This made it more likely that other people would go underwater on their mortgage and also walk away.
Education doesn’t have this kind of contagion. If you stop paying your student loans it has very little impact on the value on my education.
It's never been more true that education is overpriced and underdelivers.
The contagion may not be "house goes bust and my house value goes down"... but there is a contagion: My degree is now no better than the degrees for the mills pumping out idiots while lowering standards and full of soft degrees filling the markets with "educated" people that aren't qualified to fill a coffee cup at starbucks.
If you don't see a market flooded with lower value results as devaluing the worth of higher education then you're not looking closely enough.
It doesn't need to be contagious to create a crisis, just correlated, e.g. if there is a big macroeconomic shock that makes many students unable to pay their loans all at once.
US community colleges (usually 2-year) tend to have low tuition and may offer flexible scheduling so you can pay as you go and/or work through school. Housing can still be expensive though.
US public universities may have lower fees for in-state students. UC Berkeley costs some $41K+ per year (including on-campus housing, food, etc.) for CA residents - not particularly affordable to begin with - but charges an extortionate $33K "nonresident tuition fee" on top of that for non-resident students (including any students under 24 whose parents live out of state.)
Public in what sense? Elementary through Secondary aka K-12 is, but is mandatory for students unless they take extra-ordinary measures to not be there, e.g. homeschooling, or dropping out at 16. Funding through this is usually handled on the state and local level, often by local property taxes.
Public Universities are ones funded by the state, to varying degrees.
Private Unis have their own funding, usually through a mix of tuition and large endowments.
K-12 are "free" (funded in large part by property taxes, as I understand it). Higher Education is not, though public colleges tend to be cheaper, from what I've seen.
It's a combination of loans. The idea is let's say I have 100 identical loans I made (in reality, there are averages). Further, we agree 5-15% are likely to default. I'm going to get paid 85-95% of the interest + principle. But I want that money now. You want to invest in future cashflow, so I want to sell you a loan. Buying one from me is kinda risky, you may get back 100% or 0% of the interest + principle you expect. So instead I sell all 100 as a lump sum, and you and 99 other people each get 1%.
But, CDOs go a step further. You may have more or less risk tolerance. So we chop it up. You can buy something that gets paid back if 70% of the loans are good, or only if over 70% or over 80%, or even over 90%. The less likely you are to get paid back, the more you make.
So the person who absolutely wants to get paid back gets a small interest rate. The person who only gets paid back if literally every loan pays off gets a much higher rate.
In 2008, what happened is all those people buying the "very safe" 75-85% failure rate sections also were getting wiped out.
Collateralized Debt Obligation, sort of like a bond that's composed from many loans on something you can repossess, like houses or boats. They're notorious because they were involved in the 2008 financial crisis.
The Big Short also has an earlier explanation of a non-synthetic CDO ("we just repackage it [low-quality risky debt] along with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell and put it into a CDO"):
You take a bunch of loans and bundle them together and securitize the bundle to sell to the public. Mortgage CDOs crashed the global economy in 2007-8.
Seems wrong to influence your son's decision based on your financial situation rather than his desires/passions. Of course if he's naturally interested in the trades then sure.
One has to think the ROI for any financial investment in someone <25 YO towards things like education pays off more than similarly-sized investments later in life.
Regardless of whether the parent can support that tuition cost or the kid has to take on loans themselves, it should be up to the individual whether they take on that risk irrespective of the parent's financial situation, which is I think where this heavily-downvoted reply was going.
As somebody who's education was way less supported than the rest of my family, who came out with a better job than all of those others in spite of that, there's a decent chance your kid will resent being "held back" by such a choice for a very long time if you give them trade school as their only option in life.
Lots of people find ways to be successful in the arts by eventually finding something cross-disciplinary, and with the direction most non-white-collar jobs in the US are heading I wouldn't bet my kid's life on trade school. What made sense as a sentiment on Mike Rowe's "Dirty Jobs" 10+ years ago doesn't quite hold up as well today, and those projects were funded by the Koch brothers and the whole "trade school is just as good" thing should be taken with a mountain of salt. I'd love to see more data proving trade school proves better today, especially for young adults with educational backgrounds and access to learning and job opportunities whose parents are in the economic class to be browsing HN
Passion doesn't pay the bills. It's good to be passionate about something, but many passions are not marketable.
Many have drowned in student debt following their passions, but this wouldn't be so in many countries that have university education fully covered or significantly subsidized by taxes.
The countries that have "free" university education also steer young people into career paths starting in middle school. If you're not the sort of person who will succeed at university, you get directed into vocational or trade school or apprenticeships, etc.
If passion doesn't pay the bills, it certainly can't pay taxes. Why should engineers and plumbers and garbagemen pay taxes to send someone to art school for years?
Once something is paid for with tax money, then the people paying the taxes want a say in how it's spent -- which is not just reasonable, it's a requirement of a liberal democracy.
Of course, countries with tax-funded higher education ration degrees. There are limited slots, and art courses are usually at the bottom of funding considerations.
Exactly! Passions are good hobbies. Many people who take their passion and turn it to make it their source of income regret the decision because it sours the passion —it become a job.
There are a lot of ways to make money. Picking a job based on money is a good way to be absolutely miserable. My parents pushed me towards making money my entire life and there is nothing I regret more than following that advice. Every day I wake up dreading going to work and it seeps into every aspect of my life.
Presumably you have enough money now to switch to something that makes you happy?
Personally, if you’re going to be miserable anyway (as most Americans are these days), it’s probably better to be miserable with money than without money, lol
I'm 29 and have 500k saved up (live in Santa Monica which is quite expensive), but yes I think I will quit my next stock vest which is Friday.
And idk. My best friend from high school moved out here with me and he's a waiter making 40k a year and seems totally happy. Works like 30 hours a week, no mental stress, able to work out and work on himself. I think money is highly overrated.
Making 40K a year is only sustainable while you're in good health and don't have a family to support. I remember my carefree twenties as well, but things can change as you get older. There is no retirement plan on that kind of income other than waiting tables till you die. At least you should recognize that your relationship to money is very different than theirs. Having half a mil in savings is a completely different ballgame.
I think both situations are unsustainable. I'm not financially stable because I hate my job and might quit at any time and he doesn't make enough money.
But I think my main point is both of us have a way of becoming sustainable so you might as well do what makes you happy instead of working a job you hate for 8 years. Being a waiter making 40k isn't enough long term, but working your way into a higher end establishment or management is. A girl I dated started out as barista, became a store manager, and is now the regional manager and makes ~125k a year and more importantly she is a perfect fit for the job and enjoyed it the entire time.
All I'm trying to say is there are a lot of paths to a sustainable life even when following your natural inclinations.
But anyway OP responded his son's not super interested in college anyway so his plan sounds good to me anyway.
The world is cruel and wants to see us all ground to dust. The typical HN denizen might know this at an intellectual level, but few of us have the lived experience. I sincerely hope you never have to learn how much of a privileged perspective you have.
If you don't want to be poor, don't go to university.
Academia should be a place for people who run away from money, because it's the last thing upon the list of interests for them. Academia should be a place for joy in learning concepts, and in some circumstances, which strive to be useless. Mathematics is one of the most exemplary fields for this, which is summed up quite nicely with the following quote:
"The mathematician does not study pure mathematics because it is useful. He studies it because he delights in it, and he delights in it because it is beautiful."
Never go to a university expecting to improve your wealth status, because it very likely won't happen. Turn elsewhere to find wealth.
Meanwhile in the real world, large companies and public jobs all have practically mandatory education requirements. Your pay as a public employee in Germany is literally determined based on whether you have a BSC or MSC or none.
> Following passion is for rich people (or people who get unlimited student loans).
I think this is a truism that people want to be false.
But in any developed country, most poor people are pretty rich when compared to the world, and it offers them lots of freedom to choose what field they want to work in, where they want to work (both city and company), etc. There isn't the expectations that sons take their fathers' jobs and that daughters take their mothers' (often being a homemaker).
It still sucks to be relatively poor in a developed country, but most are rich enough that they can follow their passions in ways their grandparents never could and half the world can't today.
Giving the benefit of the doubt here, I assumed the push toward trade school is because that makes the most sense for the child in question. College is not for everyone, including a lot of people pushed into attending.
It really baffles me sometimes how readily we assume our conclusions apply to others. Most serious decisions in life require balancing multiple difficult trade-offs. To think that our particular biases, experiences, resources and difficulties are anywhere close to another's is a huge leap.
It's fine to speak from one's experience, but to say that someone else should make the decision one thinks is wise based on a single comment is either ignorant, arrogant or both.
Edit: I replied to you @allenrb, but I'm not directing these thoughts toward you. I'm just pointing out a general behavior I see (but wish I didn't) on the internet and HN.
Seems like if we don't think 18 year olds are not legally responsible enough to drink alcohol, then perhaps we shouldn't allow them to take on life-destroying amounts of debt.
Well the CDOs are probably tranched, so there will be some portions that are safe. But in general, you'd think the student loans would only be in trouble if there's a large increase in the unemployment rate. You'd get a meltdown if the government were to announce a change in the laws.
Sort of. They took the shitty bottom tranches from the mortgage CDOs and repackaged them as new CDOs. The credulous ratings agencies gave these new CDOs the same rating as the old ones but it took only a modest market downturn to wipe out even the top tier of these second level CDOs. Even this might not have been a problem if the whole thing hadn't been massively leveraged. The fact that mortgages were involved was nearly irrelevant. This shitshow could have been built on anything. The regulatory reforms that tackled the mortgage market were missing the point.
> But in general, you'd think the student loans would only be in trouble if there's a large increase in the unemployment rate.
I thought the government guarantees these loans, but maybe I mis-read that, mis-understood, or something changed. I think the borrower is still on the hook and accrues fees if they don't pay but I also thought the federal government literally paid to keep the bank whole.
Even if you can't discharge the loan in bankruptcy, if someone can't pay, you as the lender have a problem. The balance in your favour might keep increasing with the borrower totally screwed, but that doesn't really help you if nothing is being paid.
Have to wonder how this interacts with the US healthcare system. As people get older they are more likely to have health problems that prevent them from working and cost a bunch of money.
>The balance in your favour might keep increasing with the borrower totally screwed, but that doesn't really help you if nothing is being paid.
The secret is to lend money and then make people spend it on something worthless. You know, the easiest way is to lend someone money so they can gamble the money away. You might now argue that this is terrible for the lender, but only if the lender doesn't own the casino. Then the gambler ends up in massive debt for no benefit. It doesn't matter if the borrower repays the loan or not because the lender didn't lose a single penny and every payment results in profit.
This is just a hypothesis because I am not aware of any banks or financial institutions operating an educational institution, except maybe lambda school which was heavily incentivized to get people to sign up for income sharing agreements but then only deliver some low quality MOOCs with the only source of support being TAs who themselves are former lambda school graduates.
This is why I'm asking. If that's the case, then I think even I would want to invest heavily in them. As long as the US government continues to make the money printer go BRRRR, this is an investment vehicle that simply cannot fail. (Until it does, in which case it will do so in a most-spectacular fashion.)
There are some loans the government guarantees and other loans that the government merely makes immune to bankruptcy. Obviously, they have different risk profiles.
I went to school from 87-91. I could already see the problem starting. I was hoping this bubble would burst before my own children went to school. Two of three have gone to public schools so far, and we've paid through the nose for it. We are pushing our third towards some sort of trade school.