Supply chain scuttlebutt is that the display technology is so constrained[^1] that Apple expects to only _manufacture_ 400,000 headsets next year.
It's possible that this product will flop, but I can't see it being anything other than sold out everywhere for most of 2024. Heck, you can make a reasonable case for there only being 10k-30k SKUs in channel inventory at launch, and Apple has 275 retail locations which require multiple demo units in addition to launch stock.
It'll be by appointment so they can control the tap, say it is sold out, say there is a waiting list. Create a buzz.
Cynically, a case in point is the display: it is so new and advanced that they have problems ramping production!
Whether issues are real or not, I am sure that Apple's marketing team knows how to spin everything. They are famous for that and indeed one of the best.
> It'll be by appointment so they can control the tap, say it is sold out, say there is a waiting list. Create a buzz.
For near enough the last decade, all iPhone launches have been appointment only in-store, and Apple Watch was appointment only in-store for the first 4 months of its life.
> Cynically, a case in point is the display: it is so new and advanced that they have problems ramping production!
Imagine that at the end of next year, Apple has sold 400,000 devices, and tells us that only supply constraints are preventing them from selling many more. Which is the more plausible explanation:
1. As with nearly all novel/complex technologies when manufactured at large scale, the combined costs of tooling, the complexity and uncertainty of new manufacturing techniques, and the low yields which inevitably follow, have created a supply constraint for Vision Pro.
2. In the face of weak demand for Vision Pro, Apple and its partners choose to collude in a lie to customers and shareholders alike, claiming that Vision Pro is supply constrained when really nobody wants to buy it, thus… achieving… erm… uh… something?
It's possible that this product will flop, but I can't see it being anything other than sold out everywhere for most of 2024. Heck, you can make a reasonable case for there only being 10k-30k SKUs in channel inventory at launch, and Apple has 275 retail locations which require multiple demo units in addition to launch stock.
[^1]: https://www.ft.com/content/b6f06bde-17b0-4886-b465-b561212c9..., https://www.ft.com/content/632b4ffa-3637-4972-a525-0ddbcd50b.... Tl;dr: each device needs 2 displays (so 800k displays leads to 400k headsets), the displays are new and complex (which is why they account for 50% of the manufacturing cost of the entire device) which means it's expensive to ramp up production lines for suppliers (who are unsure of demand) _and_ production yields are low.