Speculative execution is all about control flow. It's about what value is in the instruction pointer at some nebulous point in the future.
A conditional jump can put one of two values into the instruction pointer, they will either increment the instruction pointer (jump not taken) or put the immediate value into the instruction pointer. (jump taken)
cmov/sete are utterly deterministic; they always increment the instruction pointer. There's nothing to speculate on, there's nothing to predict. They just go to the next instruction.
It's murkier than that. Speculation also deals with the order in which instructions can be executed. Take for example memory ordering (discussed in a mini essay elsewhere here): we typically speculate that all loads are unrelated to any other older in-flight stores with unresolved addresses so that we can optimistically launch them. This is not a control flow issue but it is something we both speculate and predict (memory dependence predictors!) despite the next PC being essentially deterministic.
A conditional jump can put one of two values into the instruction pointer, they will either increment the instruction pointer (jump not taken) or put the immediate value into the instruction pointer. (jump taken)
cmov/sete are utterly deterministic; they always increment the instruction pointer. There's nothing to speculate on, there's nothing to predict. They just go to the next instruction.