This seems absurd to turn around after commiting this -- an armed rebellion.
I've just read a Russian telegram channel post (https://t.me/volyamedia/703) theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in higher ranks, that this was a push from the president administration and FSB against MoD, with Prigozhin being just the public side. This is of course based on anonymous sources and must be taken with caution, but it is a good explanation of what could have happened.
If we assume just 2 sides, Kremlin+MoD vs Wagner, this agreement looks impossible or a fake move.
From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very implausible.
So I had only 2 explanations: 1) he lied and was preparing more offensive, or 2) he actually got some undeclineable offer: get some money, go abroad, or to say Afrika with another mission. But still, for Kremlin, (2) looks a very short-sighted decision and undermining of own position.
Thus, the version of an internal fight seems plausible. If we assume that the PA & FSB were ready to let the state lose this much reputation, or put their frontlines at risk of collapse during the counteroffensive, then things seem to agree with each other. (And collapsing front lines are a liability of MoD, not FSB anyway.)
3. Prigozhin lashed out and got in over his head, realized he committed to a suicide mission with no political support and is trying to back out of it any way that he can.
> From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very implausible.
Yes, he's probably a dead man walking, that doesn't mean that the Kremlin can't agree to allow him to walk away peacefully while they come up with a way to assassinate him. The Kremlin will better understand that trope about diplomacy being the art of saying "nice doggy" until you can find a rock.
Well, this is plausible too, because 1) I've not seen signs of him being a suicidal fanatic, and 2) there were witnesses that he didn't amass enough support from the military.
How is the current situation better than establishing Moscow beachhead and announcing in TV you are the new temporary president? Lets not kid ourselves, Moscow wouldnt hold, all they had was light infantry with few armored cars and garbage/dump trucks filled with sand to block the streets. Most likely military would just let them pass like in Rostov.
I'm thinking along similar lines - he must have been supported by some powerful people from the shadows. Not sure if it's the FSB and president though, they both came out against Wagner. Maybe a faction within FSB though? Maybe some oligarchs?
As for why he withdraw, I don't think it was because he got a sweet deal, but rather that his backers wavered in their support and giving him an offer of exile was the only favor they were capable of granting him.
I've just read a Russian telegram channel post (https://t.me/volyamedia/703) theorizing and referring to anonymous sources in higher ranks, that this was a push from the president administration and FSB against MoD, with Prigozhin being just the public side. This is of course based on anonymous sources and must be taken with caution, but it is a good explanation of what could have happened.
If we assume just 2 sides, Kremlin+MoD vs Wagner, this agreement looks impossible or a fake move.
From Kremlin position, leaving Prigozhin go away peacefully means this kind of uprisings with big demands are going to repeat. From Prigozhin's position, this means to step back after becoming an existential threat and try to co-live peacefully. Very implausible.
So I had only 2 explanations: 1) he lied and was preparing more offensive, or 2) he actually got some undeclineable offer: get some money, go abroad, or to say Afrika with another mission. But still, for Kremlin, (2) looks a very short-sighted decision and undermining of own position.
Thus, the version of an internal fight seems plausible. If we assume that the PA & FSB were ready to let the state lose this much reputation, or put their frontlines at risk of collapse during the counteroffensive, then things seem to agree with each other. (And collapsing front lines are a liability of MoD, not FSB anyway.)