> Wagner has crossed the Rubicon
Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of:
A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason".
B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will.
C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it.
I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...
I think you are underestimating the potential of a shared trauma experience in Bakhmut and a new motivating factor of "revenge". Whether it's enough is uncertain, but it has to factor.
A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason".
B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will.
C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it.
I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...