Can you go into more detail? So you're saying that at a 200 P/E ratio NVDA there isn't even enough wafer supply for NVDA to grow into that valuation even over 5 years?
I mean, you've got the gist of it. I pulled some reports on silicon production, silicon waver prices and price trends, current fab capacity etc..
My back of the napkin basically suggested that silicon production would need to 4x and fab capacity 4x (neither of which are happening) and NVDA with would have to capture all of that to justify their current price. I didn't bother writing it up, just looked at it mostly because I was on the wrong side of that play. It's something worth considering for sure.
Wouldn't NVDA just focus more on high margin datacenter products in order to grow into those higher earnings but with the the wafer limitation? Datacenter focused products are already starting to surpass gaming which is their second largest revenue source: http://www.nextplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/nvidi...
It seems to me that yes while a 200 P/E may be high, they certainly could keep increasing the prices on the already high margin datacenter products, of which get quickly gobbled up by companies no matter what price they are because of the immense demand.
We're probably ~3 years out from all of those fabs gov'ts funded coming online, right?
(n.b. that's really good work on your end and I agree with your conclusion, just idly musing about the thing that bugs me, what the heck all these non-leading edge fabs are going to do)
