Powerful LLMs are so large that they can only be trained by the major AI companies. Even LLaMA 65B (where the open release was less than intended) can't compete with GPT-3.5, let alone GPT-4. And the price for the most powerful models will only increase now, as we have effectively an arms race between OpenAI/Microsoft and Google. Few, if anyone, will be able to keep up.
Linux is different. It doesn't require huge investments in server farms.
I think you would be interested in Google's internal memo[0] that did the rounds here a couple weeks ago. The claim is that OpenAI and all competition is destined to fall behind open-source. All you need is a big model to be released and all fine tuning can be done by a smart, budget, distributed workforce.
But why would a big model be released? LLaMA can't even begin to compete with GPT-4. Fine-tuning won't make it more intelligent. The only entity currently able to compete with OpenAI/Microsoft is Google with their planned Gemini model.
…today. But with the amount of (justifiable, IMO) attention LLMs are now getting, I don't see how this won't change soon. And there's quite a bit of incentive for second- or third-tier companies to contribute to something that could kneecap the bigger players.
Linux is different. It doesn't require huge investments in server farms.