My thesis: a combination of lower-cost deskilling and automation of labor management will have far more pernicious wage effects than higher-cost complete automation. Both white collar and blue collar skilled labor will be impacted.
A few other notes:
1. Lag Effects.
My father in law worked at an auto plant for most of his career and regularly pointed out that his job didn't exist at any of the newer factories. He continued working at that factory for over a decade after his position had already been automated on newer lines, and lost his job only when the factory was scrapped and replaced (and moved to a different state in the process, for tax benefits).
Robots destroyed a lot of skilled labor, em masse, over the last thirty years. And many of the jobs that it didn't already destroy will cease to exist over the next thirty years as new major capital investments are made and capital investments from 30+ years ago are wound down.
2. Automation/Optimization of Labor Management.
Over shorter time frames -- in-between large capital outlays -- automation of labor management ("Uberfication") is a lot more impactful than automation of labor. There are a lot of skilled jobs, both blue-collar and white-collar, which are now effectively commodified. Not automated, mind you, but definitely commodified. I think that's a much larger threat to plumbing and electrical work than automation.
3. Meta RE: Mike Rowe
Mike Rowe is a (very rich) media personality whose brand was built on calling attention to the trades as a viable path to the middle class and questioning the necessity of "four-year college for all". I think that's admirable.
Lately he's turned this into a wedge for separating two components of the non-managerial working class. I think that's deplorable. Software Engineers and Welders should be in solidarity, and as far as I can tell people like Mike Rowe function -- intentionally or unintentionally -- as lackeys for the ownership class.
IMO, the distinction between white collar and blue collar work is just red meat. Of course language models won't have any effect on plumbing or electrical work! But the idea that robotics won't de-skill a huge portion of blue collar work as well seems extraordinarily naive. (NOT automate. De-skill. Which, combined with automation of labor management, turns a career track into low-pay/no-benefit gigwork.)
My father was a plumber. A true trades/craftsman. Big new construction projects were deskilled with "installers" who were mostly under the table immigrants. The warranty claims on $800K became a cottage industry. Custom homes, commercial, and repairs still require skill and experience as far as I can tell.
A few other notes:
1. Lag Effects.
My father in law worked at an auto plant for most of his career and regularly pointed out that his job didn't exist at any of the newer factories. He continued working at that factory for over a decade after his position had already been automated on newer lines, and lost his job only when the factory was scrapped and replaced (and moved to a different state in the process, for tax benefits).
Robots destroyed a lot of skilled labor, em masse, over the last thirty years. And many of the jobs that it didn't already destroy will cease to exist over the next thirty years as new major capital investments are made and capital investments from 30+ years ago are wound down.
2. Automation/Optimization of Labor Management.
Over shorter time frames -- in-between large capital outlays -- automation of labor management ("Uberfication") is a lot more impactful than automation of labor. There are a lot of skilled jobs, both blue-collar and white-collar, which are now effectively commodified. Not automated, mind you, but definitely commodified. I think that's a much larger threat to plumbing and electrical work than automation.
3. Meta RE: Mike Rowe
Mike Rowe is a (very rich) media personality whose brand was built on calling attention to the trades as a viable path to the middle class and questioning the necessity of "four-year college for all". I think that's admirable.
Lately he's turned this into a wedge for separating two components of the non-managerial working class. I think that's deplorable. Software Engineers and Welders should be in solidarity, and as far as I can tell people like Mike Rowe function -- intentionally or unintentionally -- as lackeys for the ownership class.
IMO, the distinction between white collar and blue collar work is just red meat. Of course language models won't have any effect on plumbing or electrical work! But the idea that robotics won't de-skill a huge portion of blue collar work as well seems extraordinarily naive. (NOT automate. De-skill. Which, combined with automation of labor management, turns a career track into low-pay/no-benefit gigwork.)