My guess is that we will have a very efficient Taxi system. Using a Smart Phone you will be able to request a Taxi where ever you are; it will already know your favorite locations; your favorite music; it will automatically charge you; we will not need so much parking space.
I just hope that this goes into effect in a way that you would signal how many people will be traveling together and they send the appropriate sized car. Having every vehicle on the road seat 5 people and luggage when it is rarely at full capacity is extremely inefficient.
Riding alone? If so, they send a 1 person vehicle to pick you up. Riding with a friend? Two person vehicle. etc.
Sounds like a YC company in the making! In all seriousness, there will be some great business opportunities here. It will open up an entirely new market.
I always thougt companies like Uber were really positioning themselves and building the tech necessary for when this inevitably happens.
Right now they need humans to drive their cars around but as soon as they can they will surely shift to automated cars. If they've already built the scheduling systems necessary they'll be able to combine that with the mindshare they've been building and be in a great position.
Wow. I never thought of that, but you're absolutely right.
Uber is Netflix in 1997, sending DVDs through the mail to people's mailboxes, carefully awaiting the day when the technological infrastructure will support their true purpose.
It is probably a bit hard for a startup at this point, unless they just develop and license tech. The major cost and barrier to market is probably still in getting regulations through, once these are through though I think there will be lots of startup opportunities.
As well as being linked to the person before you (for fines or something), I imagine you'd be able to send for another car, saying this one is too dirty etc. At which point it would be routed back to a facility of some sort.
Combination of financial and social prevention, automated surveillance and market segmentation will (relatively easily) take care of this. I don't see how it could be a showstopper.
In fact, I think self-driving cars together with decent electric engines (which already exist) can revolutionize urban landscape.
Just imagine how quiet and pollution free our cities will be if the only traffic allowed inside are electric cars, who automatically go to charge themselves when necessary.
This could work incredibly well especially in urban areas. At least here in Europe, more and more cities are experimenting with traffic limitations in the inner city core, but this also has big drawbacks. Coupled with a cheap self-driving electric cars service, on the other hand...
Economically that seems like a wonderful idea, but politically it sounds doomed to failure. Taxi drivers tend to be pretty well organized politically, and in most cities even have laws in place (usually medallion systems) to limit competition. If they can keep these laws in place with their current very weak justifications, I wouldn't be surprised if they can shut down automated cars very easily, since the public would probably be a bit nervous about the idea anyways.
EDIT: Possibly I'm being too pessimistic. I expect automated cars could be really, really awesome and if so, and if they're allowed anywhere, eventually there'll be pressure in other cities to allow them too.
In many cities there's a distinction between medallion taxis—which you can hail off the street—and livery service—which you need to call for. Since you generally have to take whatever you get get when you hail a cab, the prices are regulated and, in return, the competition is limited.
Generally, the number of livery service drivers and cars is not limited.
That said, the Washington, DC taxi commission has been hassling the Internet-based Uber. Last month they ran a sting against an Uber-arranged driver and impounded his car.[1]
One of my concerns about an automated taxi system is that they'll become dirty and decrepit even faster than public transport because there's an increased level of privacy and nobody to maintain the vehicle between riders. How would you enjoy running late for something and the taxi pulls up, its seats covered in vomit? Eventually, all cars may be scratched up and 'tagged'.
Maybe this won't be as widespread a problem as I think it could be. Zipcar seems to be rather successful, although I've never used one.
