I'm part of a subreddit that reads defence reports and tries to keep up with "credible" news about the War in Ukraine. A newly released report by RUSI (The Royal United Services Institute, the world’s oldest defence and security think tank) says that Russians are now "near real time" decrypting 256-bit Motorola radio communications by Ukrainian forces.
Here is the relevant passage.
Ukrainian officers recalled one incident in which the Russian headquarters gave pre-emptive warning to its units of an artillery strike based on Ukrainian troops calling in a fire mission. The Ukrainian troops were communicating with Motorola radios with 256-bit encryption, but it appeared that the Russians were able to capture and decrypt these transmissions in near real time. The most likely system for such functions is the Torn-MDM. (57)
They cite two interviews with Ukrainian military personnel and their own analysis of the system as a source:
57. Technical assessment of Torn-MDM conducted in Ukraine, June 2022
Some are saying this is impossible, that near real time decryption of 256-bit encryption is not possible.
I'm not an expert, so I'm punting over to the cryptographers here at HN. Could this be? Is it possible/feasible to do battlefield decryption of 256-bit radio encryption?
I don't know the particular model of the Motorola radio they are referring to.
Here is the report in question. Page 23 https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
This is very possible -- provided the other side has the keys to decrypt.
Note that "decrypt" is different from "crack". All these radios would "decrypt" in real time (because the receiving radio has the decryption keys). Cracking (as in decrypting, when you do not yet have the key) should be impossible.
But perhaps there is some flaw in the implementation that allows for "decrypting" without needing the keys. Most encrypted systems fall not because the algorithm (the 256-bit part you talk about) itself is weak, but because some other aspect of the overall implementation has a flaw that allows one to obtain the "secrets" without attacking the encryption.
And... Keep in mind that this report, assuming it is credible, could be as simple as: "The other side has captured one of the radios and is using it to listen in on the comms".