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That's not generally the case when dealing with things involving plate tectonics, which often have a build up of pressure over time (tens, hundreds, thousands of years). The tension can slowly build up at a plate boundary before snapping to relieve the tension.

In general with phenomena like this it makes less sense to start from the assumption that the root cause for something is just a random number generator that the Earth's programmer decided to hook up to add variability.

Rather, things in the real world have actual causes, and if they typically happen on the order of 100,000 years apart, there's probably a time-need reason for that.

(There are plenty of phenomena that are just statistics, of course.)



Here's one scientist saying that while that logic kinda works for earthquakes volcanoes don't behave that way. https://www.livescience.com/yellowstone-caldera-supervolcano...

Also, even if it would be possible to compute that an earthquake/eruption is overdue I've yet to see it done correctly. Obviously I don't know where the person I'm replying to got their statistic. But if you Google something like "Yellowstone overdue" the results use very poor logic, often just extrapolating from three data points millions of years ago.




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