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> Unfortunately, high mortgage rates also work to reduce supply. A lot of homeowners who locked in 3-ish% mortgage rates in the last couple years don't want to move unless absolutely necessary, because that would mean refinancing at a higher rate.

That factoid gets parroted in every article about the housing market, but the fact is that for the vast majority of homeowners, when they sell their house, they are also simultaneously buying a house. So if more of them choose to sit on the sidelines, that reduces both the supply and the demand equally.

Interest rates might have an impact on investor-types, in a way that could move the market (for example if more investors postpone selling in favor of renting to keep their low rates). But investors tend to have shorter duration and/or ARM mortgages (because the 30 year is for the most part only available for primary homes), which means that the higher rates will catch up to them eventually. The CRE market is a good example of how that is playing out.




OP stated he was hoping for more supply, or at least leas demand relative to supply. I stated why that may not work out. I said nothing about supply declining more than demand.




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