I think we'll have a minor downturn related to macro issues (already seeing this) where it will become similar (arguably already has) to 2000 in terms of getting a job. More normalized salaries (100k-150k) and closer to applying for a job in the rest of the economy (might have to interview a lot or move cities).
I think AI will be the exception to this. Going to be a lot of SWE like support roles around AI. MLOps, glue code, etc. AI people really do not enjoy this type of work. And comp for AI work is even crazier than top FAANG jobs used to be. (top salaries being reported in ranges of $5M-$20M/yr)
As we move out of the current macro and the job market in general improves (may take some years for this one) I think we'll still see a lot of LLM enabled developer jobs.
Being a mathematician used to mean doing a lot of calculating. We have calculators to do that for us now but there are still mathematicians.
Being a developer used to mean doing a lot of programming. We have programmers now (GPT-4) but we'll still have developers driving them (in my opinion).
There were similar panics when things like dynamically typed languages came along, or the idea of programming on a computer rather than punch cards. If you've been doing it for a while it seems like with these developments "anyone" will be able to do it. Which, maybe thats true. Maybe "anyone" could do it now even with some study and effort. But so far as I can tell most people still do not want to do software development even if it's LLM enabled. In fact even some people in tech don't want to use LLMs.
I think what we have now are just way better tools. Power tools if you will. We're still carpenters. We just don't have to turn the screwdriver anymore.
I think AI will be the exception to this. Going to be a lot of SWE like support roles around AI. MLOps, glue code, etc. AI people really do not enjoy this type of work. And comp for AI work is even crazier than top FAANG jobs used to be. (top salaries being reported in ranges of $5M-$20M/yr)
As we move out of the current macro and the job market in general improves (may take some years for this one) I think we'll still see a lot of LLM enabled developer jobs.
Being a mathematician used to mean doing a lot of calculating. We have calculators to do that for us now but there are still mathematicians.
Being a developer used to mean doing a lot of programming. We have programmers now (GPT-4) but we'll still have developers driving them (in my opinion).
There were similar panics when things like dynamically typed languages came along, or the idea of programming on a computer rather than punch cards. If you've been doing it for a while it seems like with these developments "anyone" will be able to do it. Which, maybe thats true. Maybe "anyone" could do it now even with some study and effort. But so far as I can tell most people still do not want to do software development even if it's LLM enabled. In fact even some people in tech don't want to use LLMs.
I think what we have now are just way better tools. Power tools if you will. We're still carpenters. We just don't have to turn the screwdriver anymore.