I do suspect it's true that there are more web developers (frontend or fullstack) laid off than any other category, but that is likely a result of much higher demand, given that A) web had a decade+ head start on mobile and B) the app store gold rush had already started to taper off years ago, leaving much higher friction and thus lower demand for true native apps (including the resulting strategy shift towards web views/react-native to hedge on development costs).
Overall this means native might be slightly less saturated, but I think it's a real risk for junior developers to conclude that that means it's a better career path than web. Web is still where the greatest demand is. Other specialties like embedded have potential but aren't at the same volume. And of course there's always going to be demand for a smaller number of maintainers of legacy systems (eg. COBOL/mainframe) that provide extremely high ROI but are generally undercompensated due to lack of competition. Ultimately after a multi-decade run up like this, the market will be saturated with people who are just chasing the paycheck but aren't actually suited the job. If you have the natural curiosity and attention to detail needed to succeed as a software engineer, just pick something you're interested in and hunker down while to give the dead weight time to wash out. It happened in 2000, it'll happen again.
There is no flood of skilled developers... There is a flood perhaps of outdated devs, novices, people who don't know how to negotiate or apply themselves, and phonies... Reports like this are pure sensationalism... There are still far too many disciplines and contexts within development to put the career of "being a developer" all into one bag.
Yes there absolutely is a flood of skilled developers, in fact there's so many of them they're expected to solve two Leetcode hards in a 45 minute interview to get a job now. Look at how many people got laid off in the last year, a lot of them are skilled
there is that endless spiral of tools 'n frameworks that drive developers to bestow the Next Best Dev Tool Ever that must be considered. If you're at the front of that wave, you're good to go but the detritus left behind has to be comprehended by others for some time after.
I start seeing those pictures of kids sorting mountains of western e-waste when someone declares they want to get into dev/ops
Overall this means native might be slightly less saturated, but I think it's a real risk for junior developers to conclude that that means it's a better career path than web. Web is still where the greatest demand is. Other specialties like embedded have potential but aren't at the same volume. And of course there's always going to be demand for a smaller number of maintainers of legacy systems (eg. COBOL/mainframe) that provide extremely high ROI but are generally undercompensated due to lack of competition. Ultimately after a multi-decade run up like this, the market will be saturated with people who are just chasing the paycheck but aren't actually suited the job. If you have the natural curiosity and attention to detail needed to succeed as a software engineer, just pick something you're interested in and hunker down while to give the dead weight time to wash out. It happened in 2000, it'll happen again.