On: The Most Accurate Election Forecast? Hardcore Gamblers

[fallentimes]

Do to the volume of games and # of teams, NCAA basketball is actually the best for exploiting. The book The Smart Money is a great read.

Also, we have some people in the know post on the TicketStumber blog:

http://ticketstumbler.com/blog/category/sports-insights/

http://sports.ticketstumbler.com/blog/?cat=4

My gambling "fund" is up 35% for the year. My stocks are down by a similar margin.

[mattmaroon → fallentimes]

Interestingly, a friend a couple months ago was telling me about ultra ETFs. They use leverage to ensure (quite reliably so far, though they're new) a daily return of double the index they're based on. He specifically recommended one that is short the S&P.

I haven't talked to him since, but I suspect he's buying a beach house ATM.

[fallentimes → mattmaroon]

Double the loss though right? The banks went under for similar reasons - way too much leverage.

[mattmaroon → fallentimes]

Yeah, over time an ultra etf should make 2x what the s&p gains (and a short one would lose 2x). In the short term though that's a hell of a profit (on the ultra shorts) when things go the way they have.