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You're wrong. I wonder if you've tried GPT-4 yet.


Let me be facetious here.

If GPT-4 was truly all that, it would be classified and at work in Ukraine (or somewhere) right now. Not running Akinator-tier promo marketing gigs.


It's not about GPT-3 or GPT-4 per se. It's about the rate of progress and the development of Theory of Mind.

GPT-4 plays ~1400 level chess having never been taught the rules of the game explicitly (except for potentially reading them on one of it's ingested webpages)


> except for potentially reading them on one of it's ingested webpages

Yeah, that's a pretty huge "except".

Chess literature is just literally hundreds and hundreds of transcripts of chess games. You just need to memorize them.


I would actually assume there is something more powerful than ChatGPT-4 at work helping the US military right now. Likewise for Russia. There's even a possibly that's the reason the conflict is dragging on so long.


You only think the conflict is dragging on for tomorrow long time because of the media hype that one of the sides is going to win... any day now!

The fact is that most wars tend to drag on for years.


I've never got any impression either side is about to win at all. And yes, there are plenty of wars historically (and even recently, e.g. the Syrian civil war) that have dragged on for many many years. But Putin would never have launched the attack against Ukraine if he thought things would be where they are now. How far off are we from a military-trained AI that could make that sort of prediction accurately?




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