Ok so we want to be careful about not offending the ultra-nationalist expansionist guy...because the next guy might be an ultra-nationalist expansionist?
IMO, that still means you reduced the world by one ultra-nationalist expansionist who had sufficient connections and charisma to get into power. And that's still a win, even if there's still more of them out there.
> Ok so we want to be careful about not offending the ultra-nationalist expansionist guy...because the next guy might be an ultra-nationalist expansionist?
That's not what I said. We shouldn't do any appeasement whatsoever.
Just pointing out to the fact that if someone overthrows Putin, it's not necessarily going to be a guy who thinks that the war in Ukraine is stupid.
3b isn't a real option though if you're trying to head off a potential coup. You need to go with 3a in order to placate the oligarchs who want to go back to doing business as usual and placate the military who wants to go back to not being generally hated by the populace in order to reduce potential support for the coup you're scared of.
3a - Someone western minded
3b - Someone even more expansionist. Like some ultra-nationalist. Or the head of the Wagner group.