It's one thing to say it's incredibly unlikely, which is fair. Please don't use terms such as "zero percent chance" - there is absolutely both chance and precedent for pipelines to have catastrophic failure, regardless of timing. The chance is never zero.
One question is did the operator do anything after Germany suspended the certification on September 22. Like decreasing pressure or increasing pressure. Those seem unlikely to cause leak but would explain the timing.
We also don’t know anything about the leaks. It should be obvious to investigators if Nord Stream 2 was not an explosion.
The chance is never zero, but it can be effectively zero. And the way we communicate this fact is through inexact language. It's never zero in the same way that you ever having a chance to live on the moon in your lifetime is never zero.
The way you're characterizing is wrong because although it's non zero... this much is true: You have to be pretty damn stupid to NOT think biden is behind the whole thing.
