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> absence of self-sustaining colonies in harsh outposts on the earth (and similar absence of more local positive terraforming projects) indicate limits in how serious anyone is about colonizing Mars

This is a stronger argument. I agree. I think there is serious interest in establishing permanent facilities on Mars. But a self-sufficient, self-sustaining population isn't being planned on because there are too many unknowns for any definition of a plan that doesn't overlap hard science fiction.




Something I've never even seen mentioned, let along seriously discussed, is the protocol for deciding under what circumstances the first human will be born and raised off-earth. I predict that will turn out to be an intractable problem.


> the protocol for deciding under what circumstances the first human will be born and raised off-earth

This one's easy. We won't have one when it happens.

> predict that will turn out to be an intractable problem

In what ways?


Goodness, where to even begin? Maybe here...

https://www.wired.com/2009/08/spacebabies/

We've never even successfully raised a mouse in space.


Oh, you're talking about extraterrestrial reproduction being intractable. Sure. I have no view on this scientifically. That won't stop people from trying. And I'd assume there's a massive difference between zero g and 0.4g.


> That won't stop people from trying.

Or, what I consider more likely, people not trying but nature, um, finding a way. None of the common prevention methods is 100%.


Maybe. We have zero data about this.


> have zero data about this

I agree with you as much as I am certain that data have close to no consequence for the people making the decision.


When a female crew member gets nutted in on the two year long journey to mars...

I give it like a day before they're all having sex.


I can't imagine they won't all be fixed for that reason.


Have you not read Stranger In A Strange Land?


Yes. Why do you think that's relevant? You are aware that this was a work of fiction, yes?


Wait, what? Someone wasn't actually born on Mars, and there aren't actually Martians? You're joking! /s

Did you honestly believe that I was suggesting that the first person born on Mars was going to be considered the owner of Mars?




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