Given the amount of investment and progress made so far, I suspect it will pass by the end of the decade. That doesn't mean we would have a sentient AI or AGI. If we did, that would be a truly revolutionary moment. Like the discovery of fire or the wheel.
What’s passing in this case? It already passed and passed for a long time. You want it to pass for a 160 iq professor I guess, but the test doesn’t specify that. If player A is the local writer here who is very smart but annoying and player B is chatgpt and player C is any of my neighbours, 10/10 they will pick B as the human. People just keep raising the bar for what is intelligence as we don’t have a good definition or test. The Turing test is not it though and indeed it will pass for close to 100% for all humans in a few years. We will find many reasons (and you already accounted for that in your post) to not call it intelligent though.
