"Paul F. has noted a strong correlation between high payment rates and an office where people seem to like their boss and their work."
I wonder if this could be a way for companies to figure out (surreptitiously) how managers are doing: provide such a bagel service to each department, and see where the theft rate is the highest. Of course, it has to be done completely incognito, otherwise the managers would make sure that the cash box is stuff full of cash....
Given that he also noticed a correlation with weather, overall economic conditions, global events and myriad other factors, you'd need to work very very hard to isolate only what was down to the manager.
Plus most people respond primarily to their direct manager and most direct managers have relatively few reports (typically less than 20). Statistically that's going to make it hard to find significant findings given the variation that is normally seen.
Or think of a team which, for no reason of the manager's making had one inherently dishonest employee who steals all the time. That manager is on -5% before he does a thing - a big disadvantage given the variations being discussed.
EDIT: Not to mention the fact that this is one of his "intuitive conclusions" - which I'm reading as he has no solid data to support the level of liking / not liking their boss, or possibly whether it was even true.
Given that he found a correlation between company size and industry you'd need to find a few companies that matched in those regards too as well as geography (weather) and other things.
Oh, and this wasn't something he had any data to support, it was just something he felt was probably true.
Speaking as a manager, I'd like not to be fired on the hunch of a bagel salesman / economist if that's OK.
I wonder if this could be a way for companies to figure out (surreptitiously) how managers are doing
You can get a gut feeling by examining the coffee mess.
If you find that people are leaving less than one cup or less in the bottom of the pot, and it's not yet lunch, that's a sign you've got morale problems.
Happy people make more coffee for their peers. Unhappy people take a cup for themselves and let someone else do it.
I wonder if this could be a way for companies to figure out (surreptitiously) how managers are doing: provide such a bagel service to each department, and see where the theft rate is the highest. Of course, it has to be done completely incognito, otherwise the managers would make sure that the cash box is stuff full of cash....