The problem, I think, is that nobody agrees on which dimension the "10×" are measured. If only we did that, we could just measure and conclude definitively whether these programmers exist or not.
I suspect people prefer to argue about diffuse ideas, because it's more about the social exchange with other humans and less about determining what's factually true.
As a concrete example, I believe 10× programmers exist when measured in revenue supported or cost reduced. I have yet to meet a 10× programmer measured in profits! The 10× revenue/cost programmers I've worked with have had other quirks that negate many of their gains so they don't translate to profits.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I worked with 10x’s multiple times but there was also something off.
One colleague couldn’t be bothered to show on time. He’d still deliver but everyone was stressed because he could get lost for weeks. That moved him away from all more critical projects.
Other pivoted all the time. 1 week in - pivot - 2 months different attempt - pivot. Code was still used in other places until one day he decided to pivot his life and was literally MIA for 2 years (with police search etc.). He resurfaced in other country with different life.
Not so long ago I worked with dev whose output was mind blowing, he was closing stuff 10x faster than any other. Business gave him multiple raises throughout the year. He left for greener pastures though so we had to pick up his work and it was _bad_. Hard code everywhere, hard data, no abstractions. Adding metrics took weeks where they should take 1-2 days as it was standard process. Upon further analysis he got so fast because he ignored most of the development consensus. Ironically he always paired with 0.1x or short term contractors who didn’t care during reviews.
I suspect people prefer to argue about diffuse ideas, because it's more about the social exchange with other humans and less about determining what's factually true.
As a concrete example, I believe 10× programmers exist when measured in revenue supported or cost reduced. I have yet to meet a 10× programmer measured in profits! The 10× revenue/cost programmers I've worked with have had other quirks that negate many of their gains so they don't translate to profits.