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>SpaceX are likely months from bankruptcy

Companies months from bankruptcy don’t get to take a higher valuation in a down market: https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/01/03/elon-musks-space...




SpaceX is a great company, worth investing into, because of their ISP + phone telco business (lot of people are ready to pay a high price for that) and a very difficult space technology to reproduce, nobody is going to compete soon. Twitter is different, it's more like MySpace.


StarLink isn’t profitable, so that’s the kiss of death in a down market. Doesn’t matter how good the product is or how much people will pay if the replacement satellites to keep it running cost more.


StarLink is the right out of the book case for VC investment. One should expect several years before it gets profitable, and with very large initial investment. It's also very difficult to replicate, so whatever market there is there is a high likelihood for it to capture.

That means that it should be judged like a startup. Did it demonstrate a market? If so, it's valuable, if not, it's not. Current cash flow isn't very relevant.


Starlink is likely roughly break even launching on Falcon 9. The latest $137B valuation is likely predicated on Starship working as expected.


Still, when the president of a company tells that to his employees, you can't completely ignore his words, even if it's Elon Musk.




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