On: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

[simonebrunozzi]

My 2022 [0] were (Christmas 2022 comment in parenthesis):

- Bitcoin will go down to $12,000 (almost nobody saw this coming - back then it was a bit below $50,000)

- One EU country will default (not Italy), the EU will bail it out (not exactly)

- China will enter a recession (got this one)

- 2022 will be the year of the hottest and coldest temperatures on record (quite accurate)

- and also highest CO2 produced on record, caused by huge fires in the Russian Taiga. (almost accurate)

I am actually sad that I was almost right on all of these.

2023: things will get worse (economy, climate). Quite easy to predict. Bitcoin will fall below 8,000.

[0]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29746497

[usehackernews → simonebrunozzi]

The bitcoin one I’d disagree with, it was quite easy to see the drop.

It never hit 12k, but my target was always 17k, which it did hit. I publicly told many people who asked when it was around 50k to wait for 17k.

Simple analysis made this quite clear - The last three crashes had an 85% drop in price, based on the trend, 17k was the target.

I don’t see it going to 5k, to this point, the crash has followed historical precedent - going to 5k would not follow historical precedent.

Guess we’ll find out, one of us will be wrong.

[bluedevil2k → usehackernews]

The only thing sillier than technical analysis is using technical analysis on make-believe money. Looking for a pattern is human nature. Your “sample size” of 3 is by no means indicative of anything. “Historical precedence” - they teach you to never use these words when working in finance. Bitcoin going to $5k is absolutely in play this year when the scammy house of cards that is Tether finally collapses.

[fbdab103 → bluedevil2k]

If/when Tether goes down, I would be surprised if Bitcoin stays above $1k.

[brutusborn → usehackernews]

Are the % drops in crashes usually correlated? Or is there a reason that they are correlated in this case?

I’ve never looked into Technical Analysis but I’m intrigued.

[MobileVet → usehackernews]

The Bitcoin flow chart [0] is not holding anymore… so while it was always expected to drop from 60k, this current level is unexpected.

[0] (https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/stats/stock-to-flow/)

[derangedHorse → usehackernews]

There is no analytical justification for Bitcoin's price drops solely based on historical price movements. The biggest drops were directly associated with the unprecedented (by most) failure of crypto projects like Terra Luna and Celsius.