> Yes, but this means you cannot claim 400 million infections as a denominator for a constant 0.2% IFR, because many of these are reinfections, so should have a lower IFR than whatever was estimated in mid-2020.
So you agree with him: as herd immunity builds, the IFR goes down as people get more resistant. In fact you pointed this out yourself in a previous comment.
> And the whole assumption of the Great Barrington declaration, of which Bhattacharya was an author and Ioannidis a sympathizer, was that the rate would drop considerably on reinfection, because herd immunity would protect the population.
And this is exactly what happened. COVID became less serious as the pandemic wore on, and dropped close to his estimate even before the release of the vaccines.
Infection fatality rates were vastly overestimated. I got lots of flak on HN for pointing to the German random testing data estimating an IFR of 0.37%. people were calling me a moron telling me this was an order of magnitude off. Jay's claim was less conservative, but still much closer to reality than the consensus at the time. Heck, even if you use the figure of 0.47%, Jay was still closer than most expert opinions.
So you agree with him: as herd immunity builds, the IFR goes down as people get more resistant. In fact you pointed this out yourself in a previous comment.
> And the whole assumption of the Great Barrington declaration, of which Bhattacharya was an author and Ioannidis a sympathizer, was that the rate would drop considerably on reinfection, because herd immunity would protect the population.
And this is exactly what happened. COVID became less serious as the pandemic wore on, and dropped close to his estimate even before the release of the vaccines.
Infection fatality rates were vastly overestimated. I got lots of flak on HN for pointing to the German random testing data estimating an IFR of 0.37%. people were calling me a moron telling me this was an order of magnitude off. Jay's claim was less conservative, but still much closer to reality than the consensus at the time. Heck, even if you use the figure of 0.47%, Jay was still closer than most expert opinions.