On: A global house-price slump is coming?

[shagie]

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/tenure.t01.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf

The numbers go down as the year goes.

Additionally, the median length of the tenure goes up with age. For men...

    ....   2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
    25-34   3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
    35-44   5.4    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.0
    45-54   8.5    8.2    8.4    8.1    8.2    7.5
    55-64  10.7   10.7   10.2   10.2   10.0   10.0

From the pdf, if we go to Computer and mathematical occupations (which software developers are classified under)

    ....   2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
            4.8    5.0    4.4    4.3    3.9    4.2

Table 2 pdf will also be of interest - Table 2. Percent of employed wage and salary workers 25 years and over who had 10 years or more of tenure with their current employer by age and sex, selected years, 2012-2022

[jeffbee → shagie]

Those are short-term stats though. Go back 50 years in IPUMS for context. I don't dispute that the recent trend is as you state.

[z9znz → jeffbee]

What the numbers were 50 years ago is of little practical meaning in this context. The recent trend is exactly what we're talking about.

Not only does the recent trend show tenures declining, but it also shows home ownership declining since the peak in 2004.

So more job turnover and less home ownership does mean more likelihood of moving, whether to find new jobs or to work remotely.

[shagie → jeffbee]

Adding in the tenure report form 40 years ago: https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1982/09/rpt3full.pdf

    ....   1982 : 2012 : 2014 : 2016 : 2018 : 2020 : 2022
    25-34   2.5    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
    35-44   4.9    5.4    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.1    5.0
    45-54   8.4    8.5    8.2    8.4    8.1    8.2    7.5
    55-64  11.9   10.7   10.7   10.2   10.2   10.0   10.0

Though the report that you're most likely interested in is https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1984/10/art2full.pdf

> In 1983, more than 1 worker in 3 aged 35 to 44 had been with the same employer 10 years or longer and almost the same ratio of workers 45 and older had worked for the same employer 20 years or more

> Among the principal findings:

> One worker in 6 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Among workers aged 45 and over, nearly one-third have been with their current employer for 20 years or more.

Comparing that with the current one https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/tenure.pdf table 3

    ....   <12m  : 13-23m :   2y   :  3-4y  :  5-9y  : 10-14y : 15-19y : 20+y
    20+    22.3% :   5.6% :   5.1% :  18.4% :  20.6% :  10.1% :   6.7% : 11.2%
    35-44  19.2% :   5.3% :   4.7% :  18.8% :  25.4% :  14.0% :   9.2% :  3.4%
    45-54  12.9% :   4.0% :   3.9% :  15.4% :  21.2% :  13.2% :  10.4% : 18.9%
    55-64  11.6% :   2.5% :   2.5% :  12.6% :  19.3% :  12.6% :  10.1% : 28.9%

(the 20+ row is everyone aged 20 and older)

The corresponding for 2022 would be:

> 2022, about 1 worker in 4 aged 35 to 44 has been with the same employer or longer, which is almost the same ratio as workers 45 to 54 working for the same employer for 20 years or more.

> Amount the principal findings:

> One worker in 18 has been with his or her employer for at least 15 years. Amount workers aged 45 to 45, less than one fifth has been with their current employer 20 years or more. This climbs to slightly more than one quarter for workers aged 55 or older.