There might be a downcycle but I don't see how it couldn't be very different than any previous cycle. The depth to which software has penetrated business processes seems much more deep than even 20 years ago.
You can't eat software. You can't wear it or build a house with it. You could maybe make any of those things "more efficient" but you can't _replace_ them with software. So there's some "theoretical limit" to the value you can create with it. My fear is that we have overshot that line by a wide margin, and the market is getting wise to it.
That's exactly my point, though: software doesn't really "power" any if those things. They are powered by solar/gas/etc. And the robotics that do the actual agriculture tasks are created in a factory. The value software brings has a hard upper bound related to those things.
They are created in a factory that itself is powered by automation and robotics, that enables teams of hundreds to do the work that would formerly take tens of thousands.
As far as energy goes, software also helps to optimize oil exploration, and software is clearly involved in optimizing solar efficiency and production of solar cells. It's also involved in nuclear facilities, power distribution networks, charging stations, grid management systems, etc.
The limits of software haven't even begun to be tapped yet.
You can listen to it (music), you can look at it (art), you can entertain people with it (video games), you can inform others with it (media).
These aren’t the base level on Maslow’s pyramid of needs (food water shelter), but software can solve/facilitate the solving of higher level problems of human existence.
Well I mean if society collapses it won't be worth much, but as long as that doesn't happen making things "more efficient" is critical to supporting a planet with 8 billion people.
But every "Jim and sons" plumbing company doesn't get half a billion dollars in VC funding. I didn't say "software has no value" but it's certainly overestimated, especially against other services like plumbing.
