Excess mortality is not a great measurement for this. Not only is there no clear standard for calculating it across the world, but there are also large errors associated with the data it is calculated from.
A lot of models do not take age distribution into account. For example, if you have a "boomer" generation that is transition into a high-risk-of-dying age group, then the projected number of deaths will be low and the deaths high, making it look like you have a lot of excess mortality.
Slightly more complex models that project the number of deaths from a larger timeframe (for example 5 years) minimize this kind of error, but there are still many more factors to take into account.
EuroMOMO is a European standard for calculating excess mortality. They calculate data variance and thresholds where the model would consider deaths outside of statistical error[1].
Across European 28 countries (420 million people) their model shows[2] a considerable amount of excess deaths in 2020, 2021 and 2022. So according to that model, the pandemic is very much still a present danger.
A lot of models do not take age distribution into account. For example, if you have a "boomer" generation that is transition into a high-risk-of-dying age group, then the projected number of deaths will be low and the deaths high, making it look like you have a lot of excess mortality.
Slightly more complex models that project the number of deaths from a larger timeframe (for example 5 years) minimize this kind of error, but there are still many more factors to take into account.
EuroMOMO is a European standard for calculating excess mortality. They calculate data variance and thresholds where the model would consider deaths outside of statistical error[1].
Across European 28 countries (420 million people) their model shows[2] a considerable amount of excess deaths in 2020, 2021 and 2022. So according to that model, the pandemic is very much still a present danger.
[1] https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/
[2] https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/