Wow. I'm shocked that e-bikes are expensive enough for a subsidy of that size. I'd have expected e-bikes to run $750-$2000 (dollar and Euro are close to parity).
$750 e-bikes are not suitable as daily commuter bike - they use cheapest and generally unreliable components if you put miles on bicycle. They are ok for occasional weekend ride with kids but not much beyond that. (essentially quality wise they are equivalent to $100 Walmart bike)
Low end bike suitable for commute is more like $1000-$1200. $2000 is mid range that stops requiring monthly tuning and use some brand name components.
Gov subsidies push non trade-able goods prices up. Ebike is closer to global commodity than something like housing or education. French market is not big enough to move global prices either way. Short term price spike is possible but barrier to entry to import Chinese bikes are low so market will adjust quickly (unless law mandate that you have to buy bicycle made in France)
Even if the law merely mandates you buy a bike from a French retailer, I'd expect to see a substantial part of the subsidy captured by the retailer.
We see the same here in HVAC upgrade programs. To get the rebate, you have to have a state-licensed installation company do the install. When the rebates are increased, prices go up. When the rebate schemes end, there's a big push at the end of the program to get the install done while the rebates are in effect; once the schemes end, prices drop a bit [still end up higher than with-rebate, but by nothing like the full value of the rebate].
