Possibly nuclear fusion. Everybody's still conditioned to respond with the "30 years away" meme, but it's getting serious venture funding because all sorts of enabling technologies have made it a lot more feasible.
Well-funded net power attempts in the next several years: Zap Energy in 2023, Helion in 2024, CFS in 2025, General Fusion in 2026.
Previous net power attempts: zero, unless you credit NIF which ignores all sorts of losses before energy hits fuel.
John Carmack mentioned that he's shocked by how little interest Big Capital has in nuclear fission (he's more into fission that fusion). He talks a lot about it in a recent Lex Fridman podcast, a good listen if you're into this. It's weird that this isn't the main focus of the whole energy industry.
There are actually a couple dozen fission startups. Fission is definitely an easier technical problem, but more difficult in other ways. Nobody minds if you fuse atoms, but you can't fission them without doing lots of up-front design and spending years getting through regulators.
Some regulators are friendlier to new technology than others. Canada does pretty well, and has at least three molten salt reactor startups. Terrestrial Energy in particular is pretty far along and has high praise for their regulators.
In the US, the NRC is much more difficult, and it's practically impossible to develop anything here besides a light-water reactor.
Thanks! Just watched, I think he's really underestimating how many companies are already trying to be the SpaceX of fission, and how difficult the regulators make it.
When he says "you build it, power a building with it, and the government will come around," that's a good way to land in prison. A while back I was watching a presentation at a conference for reactor startups, which warned that the government doesn't play around and will prosecute anyone who fissions atoms without approval.
And to some extent that's justified. The downside of those rocks that heat themselves when you put them together is that if you're not really careful, they can heat up way more than you wanted. Powering a building isn't the hard part.
That said, the NRC is way too obstructionist. We could follow the lead of Canada and be a lot friendlier to new technology, without compromising on safety.
Regarding his fusion comments, of the 35 fusion startups there are a handful attempting advanced fuels that could generate electricity directly, instead of just producing heat. Helion for example will be attempting net electricity production in 2024, without a heat cycle.
Presumably a lot of scary men who glow in the dark start to really care about your free time and personal connections when you do things with nuclear power.
Well-funded net power attempts in the next several years: Zap Energy in 2023, Helion in 2024, CFS in 2025, General Fusion in 2026.
Previous net power attempts: zero, unless you credit NIF which ignores all sorts of losses before energy hits fuel.